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A Thesis for Oil Market Price Dynamics: CUSP, the Call on Unconventional US Oil Supply, and the “Devon Put”

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Quote of the day: The only way to deal with an unfree world is to become so absolutely free that your very existence is an act of rebellion. Albert Camus
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Sunday Choose Your Mates Wisely, Because You Can’t Choose Your Family

We sent you a thematic yesterday at a slightly odd time, late Saturday evening for me here in London, on the UK North Sea and APA. We were very negative on both. This morning, a major long only client wrote from the US: “This [North Sea/APA] write up should be taught in both history classes and policy classes TODAY. Wonderful work and I love reading these. Thank you.” Awww, shucks, kudos as ever to Greg

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Paul Sankey November 17, 2024 11:28 AM
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

The UK North Sea & Apache: where NOT to Invest

In this note we outline the bear case for the UK North Sea, and for APA (formerly Apache Oil) with a price target of $15 on APA (stock closed Friday at >$22) “before we get interested”. We postulate takeover and activist strategy at the end of this note. We slam the UK government and UK eco-fascists for abject lack of global context in their pursuit of “Net Zero”. The UK economy is low emission, and

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Paul Sankey November 16, 2024 3:33 PM
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Suncor, or a Rose by any other name would smell Tourmaline

My standard line on the challenge as an analyst, is that you make a good call, and within three months everyone else starts saying it. Good calls can’t remain exclusive. Sure enough, today the IEA is out questioning whether China oil demand has peaked, making 2024 an epic (bearish) year in global oil market history. Yesterday I was reading an article from CGEP mooting the same call. We will come back to the subject Sunday,

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Paul Sankey November 14, 2024 8:04 AM
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