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Quote of the day: “Everything that grows / Holds in perfection but a little moment.” — William Shakespeare.
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Morning Panama Vacations vs Canadian Tariffs

Continuing on from our successful refining conference (Days 1 & 2) we are pedal-to-the-metal on oil markets, with an update required for the latest balances, which have been very dynamic over the past month. Winter, shadow fleet, China, tonight on Happy Hour bring on the barrel counter! Jan Stuart, Global Oil & Gas Economist: Johannes serves as global energy strategist at Piper Sandler. A self-described oil-geek, Stuart and his team take a micro-fundamentals approach to

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Paul Sankey January 16, 2025 10:18 AM
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Sunday Monroe and other Doctrines

One mega-policy that is emerging for Trump II is an old classic: The Monroe Doctrine. In this note we run through an argument that says, “truly anything can happen with Trump and foreign policy.” Pinball market. The key uncertainty is China, where economic weakness in China suggests Trump holds the power Shipping stocks ripping imply Russia-Ukraine will be a protracted negotiation; we see Biden tightening shadow fleet sanctions as strengthening Trump’s and Saudi’s hands; and

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Paul Sankey January 12, 2025 5:45 PM
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

PBF & PSX: A Week is a Long Time in Refining

Refining Conference Day 2: PBF & PSX Well muggins here comes out of the 12th annual Sankey Refining Conference bullish refining! I’m sure you could have predicted that, but honest, guv, I went in with open-mind-to-bearish (somewhat bearish refining, relatively bullish crude to start 2025). But of course I knew that seasonally we had to try to be bullish, especially with this cold. Sure enough, after listening to seven straight refining CEOs, I drank the

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Paul Sankey January 11, 2025 1:30 PM
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