By Paul Sankey
Published on September 29, 2026 at 10:07 AM
Important note: last 24 hours we may see the beginning of a trend of weaker oil prices yet higher Treasury yields. This would be a major and concerning break of the trend of the last month of almost 1:1 postive correlation between oil prices and Treasury yields. The feeling of “something is going to break” indicator is getting to boiling point. But remember, a watched kettle never boils. ~ NFI: I did NOT get invited …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on September 27, 2026 at 6:43 PM
This morning getting coffee was a wet and blustery experience. That said, my backyard (surrounded by buildings) weather station records 0.6” rain and 20mph wind peak gust (JFK recorded a 56mph gust, but flights basically fine). Nor’Easter fake news? It is more lively out on the Brooklyn Heights Promenade for sure, and the tide is lapping as high as I have seen it along the shore in Brooklyn Bridge Park. The main observation is that …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on September 1, 2026 at 6:32 PM
White House Refiner Meeting Summary post-meeting feedback from “I am on a plane leaving DC” Excellent source: “There seems to be full appreciation that the unintended consequences of an export ban would be severe”. That’s all you need to know, the single biggest risk to the US Independent refiner and (+XOM, CVX refining segment) is mitigated. We would argue Shell/Euro refiners would benefit from a ban. Carry on. ~ Second biggest macro risk is demand …
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