BP: Trading Statement; Raising Our Brent forecast to $120/bbl for 2026

By Paul Sankey Published on April 14, 2026 at 10:32 AM

With everybody yelling about the massive disconnect of Dated Brent over paper Brent, which has been around a +$40/bbl premium in recent days, I have seen no mention of the large fact that the Big Oils earn Dated Brent, not the paper price that is killing oil bulls (long the paper) with frustration. So the price you see on your screen – Brent around $100/bbl – far understates what the companies will earn when they …

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Morning Timing Effects & Cease Fires

By Paul Sankey Published on April 8, 2026 at 1:08 PM

Greetings, Again, we have just the person for the job. Kpler. Michelle Brouhard on Happy Hour tomorrow. In this note we take a quick look at what will be horrible reported Q1 numbers from the major oils, driven by timing effects rather than underlying business performance, although both Shell and ExxonMobil who put out guidance today, have direct, major, costly damage in the Gulf from Iranian attacks on Qatar. Particularly, Shell CEO Wael Sawan described …

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Morning Frank Kelly, BP and Reserves Lives

By Paul Sankey Published on March 12, 2026 at 9:21 AM

Today a short 30 min Happy Hour with Frank Kelly, our Washington DC guru. He will give us the DC gossip, which I am desperate to hear. Man, they got some stuff going on up there right now. *** NOTE LATER TIME TO ACCOMMODATE FRANK *** 4:30PM ET ZOOM. Guest – Frank Kelly – Founder & Managing Partner, Fulcrum Macro Date/Time – Thursday, March 12th at 4:30pm ET Registration- Click Here Frank was head of government affairs …

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