Hess: the Beginning of the End; What Price?

By Paul Sankey Published on May 28, 2025 at 9:15 AM

Tomorrow Happy Hour, as we inexorably plough through OPEC+ meetings after meetings without meeting, we have oil analyst Hall of Famer Ed Morse to talk about the world. Providing next generation Hall of Fame, analyst Jan Stuart will join. Full bios with next invite, suffice it to say that Ed is Senior Advisor and Commodities Analyst at Hartree Partners, a large, global, privately held commodities firm headquartered in NYC. Jan is global energy strategist at …

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Sunday Mexico, Pemex, and the Destruction of Multiples

By Paul Sankey Published on May 25, 2025 at 12:52 PM

Happy Memorial Day weekend, We’ve talked about the vicious thugs that came back to the neighborhood. Hanging around in a sinister mob, scowling at observers, never look them in the eye, they are genuinely violent and dangerous. They are, the Bond Vigilantes. Funny thing is, I’m terrified of them too, but I look at long term interest rates and think “Rates are not THAT high”. Maybe that is what terrifies me. Below, yields since 1970. …

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Love Letter to Ethane (from the Frontline of the US-China Trade War)

By Paul Sankey Published on April 26, 2025 at 4:55 PM

He said, Xi said (nothing). We all suffer lunacy in tracking the often-antagonistic, sometimes-capitulative iterations of this “nonsensical” trade war. Headlines this week have drifted towards hyperbole, portents of the death of US-China energy trade – especially oil and LNG. In this note we tit-tat US-China energy. Key points: US energy trade with China is one worldscale trade where we, the USA, are in major trade surplus, globally the dominant supply player, and effectively control …

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