It didn’t take Sherlock Holmes to predict that last week would be dominated by Debt Ceiling negotiations and Nvidia results, and sure enough it came to pass. NVDA added Chevron’s entire market cap in 30 minutes after its results, and held the after-market spike the next day. EBITDA estimates were raised by 50%-100% by analysts, underlining the staggering ability of the market/buyside to get in front of positive earnings dynamics. Even then, NVDA surprised to…

The late 1990s oils mega-consolidation trend (BP – Amoco – Arco; Exxon – Mobil; TOTAL – Fina – Elf; Chevron – Texaco) ushered in one of the most powerful bull runs in oil versus the market; commodity and equity. The issue was lack of inventory: companies were struggling with exploration, lacked strategic options, reserves lives were falling. Managements and boards capitulated and sold themselves. It also signalled that the oil productivity cycle that drives oil…

Greetings from Boston, They don’t like it if you call it Beantown, which I always understood to be a reference to accounting as in bean counting, but it seems it is a reference to the Puritans, and their forerunners the Native Americans, love of baked beans. Anyway, Boston is buzzing with the comeback being staged by the Celtics in the NBA divisional finals against the Heat, having rallied from 0-3 down, they won big last…

Mature US oil & gas inventory; Bakken and Colorado. Today one US supermajor – ExxonMobil – sells its Bakken position to Chord (CHRD); they don’t seem to be issuing a press release ($375m can be considered non-material to XOM). Almost simultaneously, Chevron announces $7.6bn deal ($6.3bn equity) for PDC Energy ($PDCE). Might be all you need to know about respective inventory, and the clients keep repeating that Chevron needs a deal but can’t find value…

Good Sunday in May to you, This week is blatantly going to be dominated by the stupid debt ceiling negotiation, which is like watching idiocy compounding itself. The market wobbled Friday when it was revealed that the negotiations had been suspended for the weekend, but that was seen as the JV (junior varsity, ie “B” team) giving up. The “A” Team, aka Biden vs McCarthy, will evidently re-start discussions as Biden flies back from the…

Today, farm stocks, Oxy, DOE and preview of the funniest Valero stories. Met with younger hedge fund guy yesterday evening after watching the big European Cup Man City 4-0 win over Real, he was in town for the Bank of Montreal (BMO) “Farm to Market” conference held at the Palace Hotel in Midtown. Some comments on that, some comments on Oxy vs Buffett ($60’s again the charm) and the DOE which were in line with…