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Quote of the day: Pelé: “Success is no accident. It is hard work, perseverance, learning, studying, sacrifice, and most of all, love of what you are doing or learning to do.”
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Happy Hour on Singapore Oil: June Goh; full recording; BONUS

With the confusion around Hormuz, and the reversal in the surge of oil deliveries in June, I arranged a last minute Zoom with June Goh who, as ever, is highly informed on market action in Asia, and globally for that matter. Sorry, it went off at 5am this morning Eastern Time, with June in Singapore at 5pm and me in London at 10am, needs must. The short burst of Hormuz volumes was clearly a head

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Paul Sankey August 13, 2026 8:14 AM No Comments

Happy Hour: June Goh on Asia/Global Refining starting 5am ET, 10am London, 5pm Singapore today

With the chaos in Hormuz, we have a bonus Happy Hour with June Goh today, our Singaporean refining expert, which frankly you probably missed, because with her time, and me in London, we are going ahead at 5am ET. Don’t worry, we will distribute the recording. Upcoming Strategy Session Registration Link – Click Here, Recording Available Guest – June Goh, Singapore Refining Expert Date/Time – August 13th at 5am am ET/10am London/5pm Singapore Sorry for

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Paul Sankey August 13, 2026 6:48 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Climb the Rigging & Haul the Ropes

Valero CFO Homer Bhullar said on our Thursday call, with the Valero stock close to all-time highs: “Our mid-cycle is set by hydroskimming”. Homework today is running with that unit’s global economics. The data says that US/North American refining is running at max capacity ~95% utilisation Ergo, with no marginal US refining, Valero’s midcycle is set by European hydroskimming. We argue that the stock is currently discounting hydroskimming margins sustained at $4/bbl (if you require

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Paul Sankey August 9, 2026 9:02 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Ryan Lance/ConocoPhillips End Game: Sell it to Chevron?

I read a Tweet the other day that has been playing in my head: “What if the bubble is only just forming?” That got stuck in my head as we hit all time highs on the S&P5000 – before a Hormuz deal. No question, liquidity is sloshing, with the Treasury Secretary selling Euros to buy Yen… to keep the carry trade alive. Inflating markets. On ConocoPhillips there are other inner monologues in this note that

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Paul Sankey August 6, 2026 1:23 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

I don’t know where I’m going, but I sure know where I’ve been…

Reminder: we have Valero management live as this week’s Happy Hour. Thursday, August 6th @ 2:30PM ET – note unusual time. Guests: Randy Hawkins, VP International Crude Oil Supply & Trading, and Brian Donovan, VP IR; not sure on Homer Bhullar, CFO, but would not be shocked if he is on. Submit interest: sankeyresearch.com/conference/sankey-strategy-session-valero-interest-form Five questions for Valero: Q1a: Pre- vs post-Hormuz: what changed in your crude slate and product yields, with Russia escalation on

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Paul Sankey August 4, 2026 12:09 PM No Comments

Sunday: The Assyrian Came Down Like a Japanese Yen

Greetings, After sending you a UAE note yesterday that tried to start punchy with Hormuz volume charts, then later went back 2,500 years to to Cyrus the Great, Persian Empire I, today we have mostly charts. “You, me, and the UAE” was emailed to you yesterday intra-Saturday. It feels a momentous time in writhing markets, and it feels like the combination of the Japanese Yen, the new Fed Chair, and well, Korea’s Kopsi index, never

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Paul Sankey August 2, 2026 7:26 PM No Comments