S&P 500NA+NA+NA%

NasdaqNA+NA+NA%

VIXNA+NA+NA%

DXYNA+NA+NA%

CONA+NA+NA%

WTI76.73-0.89-1.1466%

NATTY3.96-0.0901-2.2247%

Quote of the day: Be thankful for everything that happens in your life; it’s all an experience.

Uncategorized
Paul Sankey

Refining Thematic: The Myth of EVs vs Gasoline * Refining Conference Schedule Launch *

The final section of our 2024 refining themes takes us to the single biggest sector in global oil, and one with potentially the most dramatic transition: US gasoline. So far we have covered: DIVERGING BALANCES – short distillate, long gasoline; China petchem solves excess gasoline?​ ​CAPACITY ADDS – Major additional capacity East of Suez, Nigeria’s Dangote, Mexico’s Dos Bocas​ ​DIFFERENTIALS NARROW – Saudi cuts vs burgeoning US light-sweet, Q3 2023 start up of Canada’s TMX​ ​RENEWABLE DIESEL…

Read More »
Uncategorized
Paul Sankey

Sunday Trading Places & Elmo

Right kids, how are we doing? There was a “Chevron: Dinner with Sauce” note sent yesterday which got strong feedback. One comment is that CrownQuest, the current $10bn reported Oxy takeover candidate in the Permian, will go for an “insane, all-time record” price per acre. We shall see, it might well not be to Oxy, the speculation is around Devon, ConocoPhillips, Diamondback, as other strong suitors. But we want to be short Oxy this week,…

Read More »
Uncategorized
Paul Sankey

Chevron: Dinner with Sauce

“How was dinner with Chevron last night?” asked several clients: My reply: “It was a thirty person private event with lashings of sycophancy, glooped in an ingratiating gravy.” “Yeah” replied a client “I figured, from the sellside notes this morning.” The obsequious sellside is made more striking, because the buyside is currently negative on Chevron. I mean look at the price chart. Hey, the buyside are getting really negative oil. They are pretty negative natgas….

Read More »
Uncategorized
Paul Sankey

Morning Machado

It’s a good day today to be having dinner with the CEO of Chevron, hosting a sellside dinner tonight in NYC. Sorry, they blew up Happy Hour for this week, but next week we have Tourmaline management. Great for North American natgas. Last night I had dinner with Manchester University Alumni, and sat next to a macro mutual fund manager (multi family office). “How is global liquidity?” I asked. “Much higher than people think” was…

Read More »
Uncategorized
Paul Sankey

Sunday Candles in the Wind

With the quiet of Thanksgiving this Sunday, the media not providing any great leads on the 30th November delayed OPEC meeting, we have plenty on the docket. This week there is Tuesday dinner in Manhattan with a major Middle East oil company <wink>, and on Thursday, dinner with Mike Wirth and Chevron management. That is the same day as the OPEC meeting. In between, I have dinner with my alma mater, Manchester University. Dinners all…

Read More »
Uncategorized
Paul Sankey

OPEC Thanksgiving 2024 Ruh Roh

Last Sunday, we highlighted the risk to OPEC Thanksgiving meetings, with a look back to the 2014 Thanksgiving OPEC meeting oil market massacre. In that market share war, oil prices fell hard from June 2014 from $120/bbl to $75/bbl at Thanksgiving, and bottomed at $46/bbl by January 2015, with a lower low in February of 2016 at $28/bbl. That is the path we are on if there is a market share war in OPEC, Saudi…

Read More »