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Quote of the day: “The real problem of humanity is this: we have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions and godlike technology.” E.O Wilson
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Thematic: Devon, Activists, and the Corporate Raiders

Devon Energy Board’s strategic review culminated with a thud this past week in a “Letter to Shareholders” that accompanied results after the market on Thursday. The letter was met with howls of protest from shareholders (at least the shareholder activists). In this note we consider the Devon board’s memo to itself. The letter was released with good 3Q results, and concluded: “restructuring complete”. The “carry on, as you were” strategy flies in the face of

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Paul Sankey November 7, 2026 2:53 PM No Comments

Premium Only: US E&P Robert Clarke Wood Mac transcript and replay

Summary of Happy Hour yesterday evening US oil production: Clarke said lower 48 output has been “sneaky” strong. Rigs are up about 40 from the start of the year in the important geographies. Woodmac’s lower 48 crude and condensate exit rate is 11.4m b/d against 11.0m b/d modelled earlier in the year, about 400,000 b/d above its January/February view. He put 2027 growth at 300,000 b/d or more. He attributed the beat to smaller private

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Paul Sankey November 6, 2026 1:05 PM No Comments

Strategy Session 4pm ET (now) Robert Clarke Wood Mackenzie US E&P

Happy Hour today, to help you think about the potential for major M&A in US oil & gas, we have an exploration and production (E&P) focus. Major E&P M&A and consolidation are very much in the air. My pet theory is Chevron for ConocoPhillips, but the market is all over Devon as a breakup or takeover. We just got EQT for Range. Wildcard might be ExxonMobil for Oxy, XOM can use its balance sheet, taking

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Paul Sankey November 5, 2026 3:54 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Meet Your Next President (Ossoff Bluenami)

Oof well, we have been working a lot on refining valuation these past weeks, and the refiners got absolutely smashed today. Shout out to the trading desk (I can give you their name but don’t have permission right now to quote) for calling $350/share as the bounce point in Valero, which was down over -10% (low $347.25, -10.4% intraday) at that point, the trader nailed the call in an email to clients. Old School Peabody

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Paul Sankey November 4, 2026 7:35 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

US Refining: Mr Icahn plans for a sprint, not Marathon

Well, refining is boiling oil, and we got two major refining surprises in four days, with the announcement today that Marathon is selling two rather nice Midwest refineries to Carl Icahn’s Coffeyville, for an absolutely massive price. Key takeaway repeats what we already told you: Valero got Lyondell Houston for a song. Marathon did not have to sell. There is no particular evidence that the company needed the cash, quite the contrary. This is a

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Paul Sankey November 3, 2026 9:34 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Malthusian Traps vs AI; Oils vs the Market

Greetings, Two big things today, we approach the week with Mid-term Election trepidation, after a violent end to last week, and Apple earnings etc tomorrow. Plenty of oil earnings. By Friday we will be all-but done, with EOG reporting. A major Long Only client pointed out that BP earnings estimates are far too low, on a stock that already looks extremely cheap. We had a little mutter about the Sellside these days, by which there

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Paul Sankey November 1, 2026 9:03 PM No Comments