Refining Thematic: The Myth of EVs vs Gasoline * Refining Conference Schedule Launch *

By Paul Sankey Published on December 6, 2023 at 9:08 AM

The final section of our 2024 refining themes takes us to the single biggest sector in global oil, and one with potentially the most dramatic transition: US gasoline. So far we have covered: DIVERGING BALANCES – short distillate, long gasoline; China petchem solves excess gasoline?​ ​CAPACITY ADDS – Major additional capacity East of Suez, Nigeria’s Dangote, Mexico’s Dos Bocas​ ​DIFFERENTIALS NARROW – Saudi cuts vs burgeoning US light-sweet, Q3 2023 start up of Canada’s TMX​ ​RENEWABLE DIESEL…

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Sunday Trading Places & Elmo

By Paul Sankey Published on December 3, 2023 at 5:14 PM

Right kids, how are we doing? There was a “Chevron: Dinner with Sauce” note sent yesterday which got strong feedback. One comment is that CrownQuest, the current $10bn reported Oxy takeover candidate in the Permian, will go for an “insane, all-time record” price per acre. We shall see, it might well not be to Oxy, the speculation is around Devon, ConocoPhillips, Diamondback, as other strong suitors. But we want to be short Oxy this week,…

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OPEC Thanksgiving 2024 Ruh Roh

By Paul Sankey Published on November 22, 2023 at 8:56 AM

Last Sunday, we highlighted the risk to OPEC Thanksgiving meetings, with a look back to the 2014 Thanksgiving OPEC meeting oil market massacre. In that market share war, oil prices fell hard from June 2014 from $120/bbl to $75/bbl at Thanksgiving, and bottomed at $46/bbl by January 2015, with a lower low in February of 2016 at $28/bbl. That is the path we are on if there is a market share war in OPEC, Saudi…

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