Oil Earnings Results Post-Performance FWIW

By Paul Sankey Published on April 20, 2024 at 10:16 AM

A major client liked the chart we published last week, highlighting that Schlumberger has a pattern of under-performing quarterly earnings reports. Quod Errat Demonstrandum, as SLB under-performed on its results yesterday, despite a headline beat. All you can analyse is the margins, and guidance outlook change. They came in neutral to mildly negative on a stock that is relatively expensive. SLB was down -2.14% in a tape which saw the mighty energy sector XLE power …

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Sunday Iraq and Roll

By Paul Sankey Published on April 7, 2024 at 5:02 PM

We sent you a theme note on BP & BPX yesterday, which was quite sad, remembering the John Browne Sun King glory days. In fact “harsh but fair” was feedback from one US E&P CEO. But as I have said many times, “if you ever feel sorry for an oil CEO, short the stock.” What should BP do? Get into Namibia. Buy a Gulf of Mexico deepwater player, but first cut out of transition investment; …

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BP: the Camel and the Horse

By Paul Sankey Published on April 6, 2024 at 2:38 PM

In this note we consider BP’s position in BPX, its US onshore play, in the context of the overall investment case for BP. Source: BP The following thoughts emerged, embracing multiple metaphors: “A camel is a horse designed by a committee”. BP seems designed by committee. It is a jack of all trades, where it should be the master of one. What is the elevator pitch for buying a stock? BP takes a trans-continental train …

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