Morning Comstock: Thelma, the Black Knight, & Forrest, bearish natgas

By Paul Sankey Published on February 15, 2024 at 10:03 AM

The market whisper is that natgas is heading to break the buck (<$1/mmbtu Henry Hub). Time to buy natgas? We are not switching stance until Comstock capitulates.  The company reported results and held its conference call yesterday. ~ ExxonMobil: the company risks Maduro vs Guyana as 1:10 risk where one is low. Clients are asking about Chevron’s delayed proxy too. CVX say the S-4 will be issued this quarter and “nothing recently in the news…

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Morning FANG-Endeavor $200: Love Bite

By Paul Sankey Published on February 13, 2024 at 8:47 AM

At 6x pro forma EBITDA, FANG should be worth $180-190/share considering $11-12B EBITDA, less purchase-price adjusted net debt and midstream subsidiary Venom (VNOM) non-controlling interest. From there, it is a gravitational pull to $200. Everyone loves round numbers. Like 5,500 on the S&P500. Or Nvidia $1,000. But for oils, we have to rely on fundamental cashflow-based valuation. Source: Company reports, Sankey Research ~ Today’s WSJ feature on Autrey Stephens, the owner of Endeavor Energy, confirms…

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Sunday Super Bowlers, Bowls and (Not) Buds

By Paul Sankey Published on February 11, 2024 at 5:05 PM

Good day, We sent you a juicy note on Devon $DVN yesterday, “STOP. Unleash the FANG Within”. Plenty to read there, and a Valero paean “right now the best refining margins in February history” came out Friday afternoon. BREAKING: 2/11/24 (Wall Street Journal) — Two Permian rivals, Diamondback Energy and Endeavor Energy Resources, are finalizing a merger that would create an oil-and-gas behemoth worth more than $50 billion. Diamondback could announce a deal with the…

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