Hess, CVX, XOM Guyana: Golden Goose, Tight Holes

By Paul Sankey Published on March 12, 2024 at 11:22 PM

Heading to Houston next week, following major oil leaders, lots of chat on the biggest oil corporate story right now. In this note we update our delineation of Guyana’s Stabroek block, with a view to the value that is essentially disputed in the takeover battle between Chevron and ExxonMobil for Hess. Many have noted how disclosure on Guyana from XOM was shut down nearly two years ago, and we speculate. We delineate Hess value, as …

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Morning Comstock: Thelma, the Black Knight, & Forrest, bearish natgas

By Paul Sankey Published on February 15, 2024 at 10:03 AM

The market whisper is that natgas is heading to break the buck (<$1/mmbtu Henry Hub). Time to buy natgas? We are not switching stance until Comstock capitulates.  The company reported results and held its conference call yesterday. ~ ExxonMobil: the company risks Maduro vs Guyana as 1:10 risk where one is low. Clients are asking about Chevron’s delayed proxy too. CVX say the S-4 will be issued this quarter and “nothing recently in the news …

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Morning FANG-Endeavor $200: Love Bite

By Paul Sankey Published on February 13, 2024 at 8:47 AM

At 6x pro forma EBITDA, FANG should be worth $180-190/share considering $11-12B EBITDA, less purchase-price adjusted net debt and midstream subsidiary Venom (VNOM) non-controlling interest. From there, it is a gravitational pull to $200. Everyone loves round numbers. Like 5,500 on the S&P500. Or Nvidia $1,000. But for oils, we have to rely on fundamental cashflow-based valuation. Source: Company reports, Sankey Research ~ Today’s WSJ feature on Autrey Stephens, the owner of Endeavor Energy, confirms …

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