Love Letter to Ethane (from the Frontline of the US-China Trade War)

By Paul Sankey Published on April 26, 2025 at 4:55 PM

He said, Xi said (nothing). We all suffer lunacy in tracking the often-antagonistic, sometimes-capitulative iterations of this “nonsensical” trade war. Headlines this week have drifted towards hyperbole, portents of the death of US-China energy trade – especially oil and LNG. In this note we tit-tat US-China energy. Key points: US energy trade with China is one worldscale trade where we, the USA, are in major trade surplus, globally the dominant supply player, and effectively control …

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Bullish 2050 Natgas and Kinder Chocolate

By Paul Sankey Published on December 17, 2024 at 8:58 AM

Meeting Kinder Morgan last week in Houston, with my old mate, IR and corporate VP Peter Staples (my other old mate CEO Kim Dang was in NY for a couple of conferences) I perused the just-released guidance for 2025 and made the following comment: “So KMI stock is on 22x price-earnings, based on your guidance for next year of $1.27 EPS. Your dividend yield is down towards 4% (stock has ripped), and you just announced …

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Morning US Natgas Cuts, Holdovers, Spare Capacity, and Negative NAVs

By Paul Sankey Published on March 8, 2024 at 10:03 AM

Rounding out our series on the drama of US natural gas – the under-pinning of the global energy economy – we combine the latest news on gas rig cuts with 10K reserves filings to show a concerning picture for the US natural gas market and gassy equity valuations. Relatively, and long term, we like Antero on liquids-rich production, deep inventory and strong propane. Similarly Range (RRC) has the second highest NGL cut after Antero. We …

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