By Paul Sankey
Published on February 1, 2025 at 3:02 PM
Who wins from Canada/Mexico oil tariffs? For sure we think consumers lose from higher pump prices given higher cost Canadian crude particularly in the US MidCon. Whether the oil tariff is +25% or +10% matters, as that will be the likely impact on Mid-Con pump prices. Short term winners, complex Gulf Coast refiners such as ExxonMobil, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum, although the latter is a loser in Mid-Con refining, as is Phillips 66 which also …
Read More
By Paul Sankey
Published on January 24, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Valero! Today we look at the company’s latest indicator margins and go deeper on the one chart that looks positive. Renewable diesel margins <crowd groans>. Valero! We are delighted as always to host CEO Lane Riggs and full crew by Zoom on 13th February – Thursday morning. As tradition dictates, we can commemorate my rookie season as a US refining analyst in 2005 and the note “The Valentine’s Day Massacre”. It remains the best worst …
Read More
By Paul Sankey
Published on January 7, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Refining Conference Notes 1/6/25 The five independent refiner managements on our conference virtual chats were surprisingly upbeat given the abysmal refining margin back drop and upcoming challenging Q4 2024 results reports, that will follow on from challenged Q3s. Source: Bloomberg, Sankey Research Conclusion? These are all good managements with defensible strategies. Assuming they all remain safely run, and that’s a big assumption, but one that has been holding, they will tend to trade as a …
Read More
