By Paul Sankey
Published on April 7, 2024 at 5:02 PM
We sent you a theme note on BP & BPX yesterday, which was quite sad, remembering the John Browne Sun King glory days. In fact “harsh but fair” was feedback from one US E&P CEO. But as I have said many times, “if you ever feel sorry for an oil CEO, short the stock.” What should BP do? Get into Namibia. Buy a Gulf of Mexico deepwater player, but first cut out of transition investment; …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on March 8, 2024 at 10:03 AM
Rounding out our series on the drama of US natural gas – the under-pinning of the global energy economy – we combine the latest news on gas rig cuts with 10K reserves filings to show a concerning picture for the US natural gas market and gassy equity valuations. Relatively, and long term, we like Antero on liquids-rich production, deep inventory and strong propane. Similarly Range (RRC) has the second highest NGL cut after Antero. We …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on February 21, 2024 at 9:15 AM
Good news: Chesapeake is cutting activity in US natgas. In the “long cuts/short active” gas drillers pairs, we like propane-rich Antero long vs Short EQT who continue to keep activity high. EQT is supported by its hedging, which makes no sense to us: these financial instruments can be used to maintain cashflow, with no need to maintain activity. Generally, we do not like dry gas plays in 2024, but would favour Chesapeake with capex discipline, …
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