Morning Natural Gas: Cut Rigs Reap Rewards

By Paul Sankey Published on February 21, 2024 at 9:15 AM

Good news: Chesapeake is cutting activity in US natgas. In the “long cuts/short active” gas drillers pairs, we like propane-rich Antero long vs Short EQT who continue to keep activity high. EQT is supported by its hedging, which makes no sense to us: these financial instruments can be used to maintain cashflow, with no need to maintain activity. Generally, we do not like dry gas plays in 2024, but would favour Chesapeake with capex discipline,…

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Morning Comstock: Thelma, the Black Knight, & Forrest, bearish natgas

By Paul Sankey Published on February 15, 2024 at 10:03 AM

The market whisper is that natgas is heading to break the buck (<$1/mmbtu Henry Hub). Time to buy natgas? We are not switching stance until Comstock capitulates.  The company reported results and held its conference call yesterday. ~ ExxonMobil: the company risks Maduro vs Guyana as 1:10 risk where one is low. Clients are asking about Chevron’s delayed proxy too. CVX say the S-4 will be issued this quarter and “nothing recently in the news…

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Sunday Snow, Mudslides, & Cost of Capital

By Paul Sankey Published on December 17, 2023 at 5:31 PM

Season’s Greetings! Beautiful mid-December day in London has passed, it is completely dark by 4pm here at this time of year. We had a thematic on natgas yesterday and broke the record for “out of office” replies, so I hope you are reading this from your Scottish castle, readying for feasts, thoughtfully swirling an Oban 16 in your heaviest Baccarat. One of my great friends nipped into see us in London this week; then to…

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