US E&P M&A: Gobbler’s Knob – Again

By Paul Sankey Published on June 1, 2024 at 12:27 PM

“That must mean we’re up here at Gobbler’s Knob, waiting for the forecast from the world’s most famous weatherman, Punxsutawney Phil.” Phil Connors (Bill Murray), Groundhog Day (1993) We are back to writing about E&P M&A … again. Our conclusions are broadly unchanged: Big companies are being incentivized by the market to take over the small, but with an evolution on the margin that finds asset quality now of equal importance to valuation; we are …

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COP Buying Marathon Oil 15% Premium All Stock

By Paul Sankey Published on May 29, 2024 at 7:55 AM

First thought is not only Devon, as always the bridesmaid, but ever the bridesmaid to ConocoPhillips, who trumped them for Shell’s Permian asset package (~$9bn) and now announces the takeover of Marathon Oil. Devon was seen as in pole position to take over MRO; these are multi-basin deals and the best first for MRO were COP or Devon. Second thought, good news to get a decent premium back in oil deals. “It shows a decent …

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Oil Earnings Results Post-Performance FWIW

By Paul Sankey Published on April 20, 2024 at 10:16 AM

A major client liked the chart we published last week, highlighting that Schlumberger has a pattern of under-performing quarterly earnings reports. Quod Errat Demonstrandum, as SLB under-performed on its results yesterday, despite a headline beat. All you can analyse is the margins, and guidance outlook change. They came in neutral to mildly negative on a stock that is relatively expensive. SLB was down -2.14% in a tape which saw the mighty energy sector XLE power …

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