The Bottom is RIN, A Poison Pen Letter

By Paul Sankey Published on April 30, 2025 at 9:24 AM

Happy Hour this week, the authors of this note, Greg Bordelon & Paul Sankey, will discuss ethane, RINs, the model portfolio and last week in Calgary and California, in an open mic session. Date/Time – Thursday, May 1st ,4PM ET Guests – Paul Sankey & Greg Bordelon Registration Link –Click Here ~ What happens to local markets if you embargo imports? Keeping up our mini-theme of exploring the more arcane aspects of US oil, having covered a “Love Letter …

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Oh Darling! ($DAR) California’s Lollipop Cuts

By Paul Sankey Published on August 14, 2024 at 9:49 AM

A focus note for you today, on Darling and the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard which has been an important factor in the weakness in West Coast refining margins, that is bleeding into wider refining margin weakness vs current refiner earnings estimates for Q3. We show in this note that California diesel is now 60% renewable, with attendant pressure on refining margins there, as gasoline demand has peaked, and 25% of vehicle sales are electric. …

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When Disaster Strikes: Neste, Vertex and “Renewable” Diesel

By Paul Sankey Published on May 15, 2024 at 4:42 PM

*** PREMIUM EVENT *** Tomorrow Happy Hour 4pm ED MORSE – the most tenured Wall Street (and DC) Oil guru, now Special Advisor to Hartree Partners, formerly Citi, CS, LCM, Lehman, Barclays, Hess, Phillips, President of Energy Intelligence, DOE under both Carter and Reagan, Princeton PhD, Johns Hopkins… the man is an oil legend. Register interest here: https://sankeyresearch.com/conference/sankey-strategy-session-ed-morse-interest-form/ Uncutting Ribbons, Restoring Emissions Renewable Diesel (RD) is a real-time disaster that provides a bitter cautionary tale …

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