By Paul Sankey
Published on August 14, 2024 at 9:49 AM
A focus note for you today, on Darling and the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard which has been an important factor in the weakness in West Coast refining margins, that is bleeding into wider refining margin weakness vs current refiner earnings estimates for Q3. We show in this note that California diesel is now 60% renewable, with attendant pressure on refining margins there, as gasoline demand has peaked, and 25% of vehicle sales are electric. …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on May 15, 2024 at 4:42 PM
*** PREMIUM EVENT *** Tomorrow Happy Hour 4pm ED MORSE – the most tenured Wall Street (and DC) Oil guru, now Special Advisor to Hartree Partners, formerly Citi, CS, LCM, Lehman, Barclays, Hess, Phillips, President of Energy Intelligence, DOE under both Carter and Reagan, Princeton PhD, Johns Hopkins… the man is an oil legend. Register interest here: https://sankeyresearch.com/conference/sankey-strategy-session-ed-morse-interest-form/ Uncutting Ribbons, Restoring Emissions Renewable Diesel (RD) is a real-time disaster that provides a bitter cautionary tale …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on February 29, 2024 at 9:03 AM
Market backdrop: our argument that low US refining utilisation this month (Feb 2024) would tend to pressure crude prices, tighten product inventories, and raise product prices, is not working at all, leading us to demand concerns. Refiners have been weak accordingly, even if background GDP data and better than expected China numbers suggest a good year for refiners. It’s not all bad news: crude oil prices are acting well. Generally with seasonality, tough January weather …
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