You Can be Sure of Shell…

By Paul Sankey Published on April 29, 2026 at 8:56 AM

Strategy Session this week Thursday 4pm · Guest – Ed Morse, Hartree Partners April 30th at 4pm ET Registration – Click Here Ed was teaching International Relations at Princeton for the 1973 Oil Crisis. ‘Nuff said. ~ This week so far: Not TACO but NACHO – “Not A Chance Hormuz Opens”. Oil inventories globally are plummeting, first a sea, now on land. DOE data today at 10:30am today will surely confirm the big draws seen …

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Hormuz Crisis Series: European Jets Jets Jets

By Paul Sankey Published on April 18, 2026 at 4:37 PM

Last week, having satisfied my curiosity on Taiwan and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) — which basically concluded that TSMC will keep getting cheap reliable subsidized government electricity even if it means Mrs Cheng has no aircon. That is globally important; AI is the counter theme to Hormuz and after TSMC’s earnings call, we concluded they are good to go for another quarter of crisis, so relatively very comfortable. Nothing it at all comfortable right now in …

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BP: Trading Statement; Raising Our Brent forecast to $120/bbl for 2026

By Paul Sankey Published on April 14, 2026 at 10:32 AM

With everybody yelling about the massive disconnect of Dated Brent over paper Brent, which has been around a +$40/bbl premium in recent days, I have seen no mention of the large fact that the Big Oils earn Dated Brent, not the paper price that is killing oil bulls (long the paper) with frustration. So the price you see on your screen – Brent around $100/bbl – far understates what the companies will earn when they …

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