Morning FANG-Endeavor $200: Love Bite

By Paul Sankey Published on February 13, 2024 at 8:47 AM

At 6x pro forma EBITDA, FANG should be worth $180-190/share considering $11-12B EBITDA, less purchase-price adjusted net debt and midstream subsidiary Venom (VNOM) non-controlling interest. From there, it is a gravitational pull to $200. Everyone loves round numbers. Like 5,500 on the S&P500. Or Nvidia $1,000. But for oils, we have to rely on fundamental cashflow-based valuation. Source: Company reports, Sankey Research ~ Today’s WSJ feature on Autrey Stephens, the owner of Endeavor Energy, confirms…

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Sunday Super Bowlers, Bowls and (Not) Buds

By Paul Sankey Published on February 11, 2024 at 5:05 PM

Good day, We sent you a juicy note on Devon $DVN yesterday, “STOP. Unleash the FANG Within”. Plenty to read there, and a Valero paean “right now the best refining margins in February history” came out Friday afternoon. BREAKING: 2/11/24 (Wall Street Journal) — Two Permian rivals, Diamondback Energy and Endeavor Energy Resources, are finalizing a merger that would create an oil-and-gas behemoth worth more than $50 billion. Diamondback could announce a deal with the…

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Devon Energy: Stop! Unleash the FANG Within…

By Paul Sankey Published on February 10, 2024 at 11:23 AM

Never Let a Good Crisis Go To Waste There was a groan went up at Sankey Research at this week’s Reuters report that Devon was in talks to acquire Enerplus Corp (ERF). Why? The news broke as we were completing this note, which argues exactly the OPPOSITE strategy for Devon, than buying a company in the Bakken. We think they should SELLL the Bakken. And more besides, and we outline that herein. We agree DVN…

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