Watching the Frog Boil without Blinking

By Paul Sankey Published on May 17, 2026 at 9:53 PM

Just back from lovely Morelia, Mexico, and to my great pleasure, it’s truly beautiful back here in Brooklyn Heights this weekend. Arcadian. The President of the UN General Assembly, and former German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, no less, has invited me to speak this week, as a panelist at an interactive dialogue of the General Assembly. That is all 193 member states – on commodity markets this Thursday at UN Headquarters in New York. So …

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Sunday Mencho, Mensch, and Mojtaba

By Paul Sankey Published on March 1, 2026 at 1:36 PM

Short note today, I’m sick. Under the weather. It has been a crazy week to say the least, starting last Sunday with the assassination of Mexican Cartel boss El Mencho, directly inconvenienced and certainly struck fear into several members of my wife’s family (Puerto Vallarta airport attacked etc, although the footage of the burning plane was fake). Reeling from El Mencho last Sunday, we then got two feet of snow in 12 hours that served …

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Sunday Distilling US Distillate

By Paul Sankey Published on February 22, 2026 at 5:53 PM

Pondering the potential disaster of the incoming blizzard that has started here. Our Monday JFK flight to London at 9am… Cancelled First world problem Some 80% of the world’s population has never taken a plane. As of 4pm snow barely an inch ~ This note is a bullish US Distillate note. Strong demand, flat supply. Bullish complex refiners such as Valero, Marathon Petroleum and PSX, but the rising tide lifts all US refining boats, assuming …

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