By Paul Sankey
Published on March 6, 2025 at 8:02 AM
This is about OPEC+ AND demand, in this note we look at the latest US oil data, and tell a personal story about Elliott-for-PSX Board candidate Al Hirshberg. Using distillate (diesel) as our proxy, the fuel of transporting goods, as our proxy for economic activity, we find an abrupt and alarming change in the shape of distillate timespreads, where the fall from a smidge of backwardation has given way to outright collapse. If this is …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on February 29, 2024 at 9:03 AM
Market backdrop: our argument that low US refining utilisation this month (Feb 2024) would tend to pressure crude prices, tighten product inventories, and raise product prices, is not working at all, leading us to demand concerns. Refiners have been weak accordingly, even if background GDP data and better than expected China numbers suggest a good year for refiners. It’s not all bad news: crude oil prices are acting well. Generally with seasonality, tough January weather …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on January 13, 2024 at 11:41 AM
This year started with massive writedowns from both Chevron and ExxonMobil in California. You don’t need to read the all-time classic of industry literature, “Oil!”, by Upton Sinclair (nor watch the classic film “There Will Be Blood” which is based on the book) to know there is a long and storied history of oil in California. In this note we write brief histories that led to the write-downs. Spoiler alert, we start with the conclusions, …
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