By Paul Sankey
Published on March 6, 2025 at 8:02 AM
This is about OPEC+ AND demand, in this note we look at the latest US oil data, and tell a personal story about Elliott-for-PSX Board candidate Al Hirshberg. Using distillate (diesel) as our proxy, the fuel of transporting goods, as our proxy for economic activity, we find an abrupt and alarming change in the shape of distillate timespreads, where the fall from a smidge of backwardation has given way to outright collapse. If this is …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on January 24, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Valero! Today we look at the company’s latest indicator margins and go deeper on the one chart that looks positive. Renewable diesel margins <crowd groans>. Valero! We are delighted as always to host CEO Lane Riggs and full crew by Zoom on 13th February – Thursday morning. As tradition dictates, we can commemorate my rookie season as a US refining analyst in 2005 and the note “The Valentine’s Day Massacre”. It remains the best worst …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on January 7, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Refining Conference Notes 1/6/25 The five independent refiner managements on our conference virtual chats were surprisingly upbeat given the abysmal refining margin back drop and upcoming challenging Q4 2024 results reports, that will follow on from challenged Q3s. Source: Bloomberg, Sankey Research Conclusion? These are all good managements with defensible strategies. Assuming they all remain safely run, and that’s a big assumption, but one that has been holding, they will tend to trade as a …
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