Quote of the day: That old September feeling, left over from school days, of summer passing, vacation nearly done, obligations gathering, books and football in the air…Another fall, another turned page: there was something of jubilee in that annual autumnal beginning, as if last year’s mistakes had been wiped clean by summer – Wallace Stegner

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Paul Sankey

Morning TOTAL Debacle

All US investors go into a TotalEnergies strategy presentation grimly determined, ready to concentrate hard. We know the French accents will be a challenge; thick to the point of parody. But yesterday’s strategy presentation turned into a total debacle, as the sound quality of the webcast was atrocious. It would have been incomprehensible if an ac-tor with a cut glass English accent had been making the statements. What we got was French English through a…

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Paul Sankey

Morning US Big Oil Cash Return Scenarios 2024e

We assess the range of outcomes for shareholder returns in 2024 for the diversified large cap E&P universe under three different price regimes: high, low, and strip. For 2024, here is the output: Source: Bloomberg, Company Data, Sankey Research As shown above, four companies meet our “attractive against any stock in the market” hurdle for Big Oils: 10% cash return to shareholders on a sustained basis. MRO, DVN, APA, and FANG. We perceive 2024 to…

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Paul Sankey

Sunday Parkinson’s Law and Dinosaurs

Hello, Back from Houston, where it was boiling hot 90+ degrees (what with me wearing a blazer) and everyone was saying how it was nice that temperatures had cooled. Flew straight back in to Newark Friday into a tragic Tropical Storm Ophelia drenching a cool New York, as summer ends officially, this weekend. Yesterday I went out in the rain to get bagels then declared I would not leave the apartment again all day –…

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