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Quote of the day: Pelé: “Success is no accident. It is hard work, perseverance, learning, studying, sacrifice, and most of all, love of what you are doing or learning to do.”
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Climb the Rigging & Haul the Ropes

Valero CFO Homer Bhullar said on our Thursday call, with the Valero stock close to all-time highs: “Our mid-cycle is set by hydroskimming”. Homework today is running with that unit’s global economics. The data says that US/North American refining is running at max capacity ~95% utilisation Ergo, with no marginal US refining, Valero’s midcycle is set by European hydroskimming. We argue that the stock is currently discounting hydroskimming margins sustained at $4/bbl (if you require

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Paul Sankey August 9, 2026 9:02 PM
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Ryan Lance/ConocoPhillips End Game: Sell it to Chevron?

I read a Tweet the other day that has been playing in my head: “What if the bubble is only just forming?” That got stuck in my head as we hit all time highs on the S&P5000 – before a Hormuz deal. No question, liquidity is sloshing, with the Treasury Secretary selling Euros to buy Yen… to keep the carry trade alive. Inflating markets. On ConocoPhillips there are other inner monologues in this note that

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Paul Sankey August 6, 2026 1:23 PM
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

I don’t know where I’m going, but I sure know where I’ve been…

Reminder: we have Valero management live as this week’s Happy Hour. Thursday, August 6th @ 2:30PM ET – note unusual time. Guests: Randy Hawkins, VP International Crude Oil Supply & Trading, and Brian Donovan, VP IR; not sure on Homer Bhullar, CFO, but would not be shocked if he is on. Submit interest: sankeyresearch.com/conference/sankey-strategy-session-valero-interest-form Five questions for Valero: Q1a: Pre- vs post-Hormuz: what changed in your crude slate and product yields, with Russia escalation on

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Paul Sankey August 4, 2026 12:09 PM
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