The final section of our 2024 refining themes takes us to the single biggest sector in global oil, and one with potentially the most dramatic transition: US gasoline. So far we have covered: DIVERGING BALANCES – short distillate, long gasoline; China petchem solves excess gasoline? CAPACITY ADDS – Major additional capacity East of Suez, Nigeria’s Dangote, Mexico’s Dos Bocas DIFFERENTIALS NARROW – Saudi cuts vs burgeoning US light-sweet, Q3 2023 start up of Canada’s TMX RENEWABLE DIESEL…
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Right kids, how are we doing? There was a “Chevron: Dinner with Sauce” note sent yesterday which got strong feedback. One comment is that CrownQuest, the current $10bn reported Oxy takeover candidate in the Permian, will go for an “insane, all-time record” price per acre. We shall see, it might well not be to Oxy, the speculation is around Devon, ConocoPhillips, Diamondback, as other strong suitors. But we want to be short Oxy this week,…
“How was dinner with Chevron last night?” asked several clients: My reply: “It was a thirty person private event with lashings of sycophancy, glooped in an ingratiating gravy.” “Yeah” replied a client “I figured, from the sellside notes this morning.” The obsequious sellside is made more striking, because the buyside is currently negative on Chevron. I mean look at the price chart. Hey, the buyside are getting really negative oil. They are pretty negative natgas….