By Paul Sankey
Published on October 1, 2026 at 1:11 PM
TODAY on Happy Hour, fantastic long term analyst Rob Connors, aka Crude Chronicles, we highly recommend his research product through Substack. Register here for the Zoom at 4pm today ET. https://sankeyresearch.com/conference/sankey-strategy-session-robert-connors-interest-form/ Source: The Crude Chronicles You can sign up for Rob (https://thecrudechronicles.substack.com/) after you hear him on the call, a former sellside analyst, he has a passion for literally going to the library and grinding through deep financial and particularly commodity history. As you will …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on September 20, 2026 at 9:16 PM
Good afternoon, It is wet here in New York, football season has started, October baseball playoffs loom, the air has chilled towards Fall. Any long-time New York professional dreads the week ahead. “UN Week”. Notwithstanding, this note is a preview and review, from a cynical personal perspective, on UN Week. There is little this week in the way of results. Cracker Barrel reporting will generate some nonsense. Speaking of blowing up a brand, I have …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on August 9, 2026 at 9:02 PM
Valero CFO Homer Bhullar said on our Thursday call, with the Valero stock close to all-time highs: “Our mid-cycle is set by hydroskimming”. Homework today is running with that unit’s global economics. The data says that US/North American refining is running at max capacity ~95% utilisation Ergo, with no marginal US refining, Valero’s midcycle is set by European hydroskimming. We argue that the stock is currently discounting hydroskimming margins sustained at $4/bbl (if you require …
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