By Paul Sankey
Published on August 9, 2026 at 9:02 PM
Valero CFO Homer Bhullar said on our Thursday call, with the Valero stock close to all-time highs: “Our mid-cycle is set by hydroskimming”. Homework today is running with that unit’s global economics. The data says that US/North American refining is running at max capacity ~95% utilisation Ergo, with no marginal US refining, Valero’s midcycle is set by European hydroskimming. We argue that the stock is currently discounting hydroskimming margins sustained at $4/bbl (if you require …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on July 19, 2026 at 2:39 PM
As a battle-scarred veteran of being a US Travel Soccer Dad, it is no new experience for me to travel for days to a big match and come back defeated and furious with the coach. Briefly to get it out of the way, a couple of things from the point of view of being present in Atlanta for the worst England capitulation since the fall of Singapore (February 1942, some 80,000 British Empire forces under …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on June 3, 2026 at 6:42 PM
Yet again, we find the Hormuz situation has actually deteriorated. CNBC today interviewed Israeli PM Netanyahu. He remains hard line, talking Iranian regime collapse. Bond vigilantes are marauding today, 30 year going through 5% again. Equity market doesn’t like it. And when they write the history of the AI bubble 2022-2027, the issuance by Google of $80bn of stock in early June 2026 will be one red line that was crossed. We have said Argentina …
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