By Paul Sankey
Published on September 1, 2026 at 6:32 PM
White House Refiner Meeting Summary post-meeting feedback from “I am on a plane leaving DC” Excellent source: “There seems to be full appreciation that the unintended consequences of an export ban would be severe”. That’s all you need to know, the single biggest risk to the US Independent refiner and (+XOM, CVX refining segment) is mitigated. We would argue Shell/Euro refiners would benefit from a ban. Carry on. ~ Second biggest macro risk is demand …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on August 13, 2026 at 8:14 AM
With the confusion around Hormuz, and the reversal in the surge of oil deliveries in June, I arranged a last minute Zoom with June Goh who, as ever, is highly informed on market action in Asia, and globally for that matter. Sorry, it went off at 5am this morning Eastern Time, with June in Singapore at 5pm and me in London at 10am, needs must. The short burst of Hormuz volumes was clearly a head …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on August 9, 2026 at 9:02 PM
Valero CFO Homer Bhullar said on our Thursday call, with the Valero stock close to all-time highs: “Our mid-cycle is set by hydroskimming”. Homework today is running with that unit’s global economics. The data says that US/North American refining is running at max capacity ~95% utilisation Ergo, with no marginal US refining, Valero’s midcycle is set by European hydroskimming. We argue that the stock is currently discounting hydroskimming margins sustained at $4/bbl (if you require …
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