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A Thesis for Oil Market Price Dynamics: CUSP, the Call on Unconventional US Oil Supply, and the “Devon Put”

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Sunday Sankey

Quote of the day: The only way to deal with an unfree world is to become so absolutely free that your very existence is an act of rebellion. Albert Camus
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Never Lie to Your Doctor nor Your Lawyer

Today, brief comments on the FT report that OPEC is looking to increase production in December. My major thought is that the FT reporter is relatively new to OPEC, and I do not know him personally (Tom Nelson). There is a clunky first line reference to “unofficial $100/bbl price target” which rattles us, as we explain in this note. However we speculate that Saudi’s sour relationship with several press outlets – notably Reuters, Bloomberg, and

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Paul Sankey September 26, 2024 9:10 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Sunday Poison, Antidotes, Infestations and Condemnations

Good day! Today we go thematic, on the energy landscape in Washington DC, as the week ahead is relatively quiet for cyclical events. Bits and bobs on companies reporting, and economic news, but nothing big, in our view. Except watch out this week on Manhattan travel, for the annual end-September UN General Assembly and gridlock in Midtown. CNN: Slovenia’s UN envoy Samuel Žbogar, who is also the current president of the UN Security Council, described

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Paul Sankey September 22, 2024 3:07 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Happy Hour: Houston, we have a Lobbyist

Today Happy Hour 4pm, delighted to say we have Tara Billingsley, former Special Assistant to President Obama, now partner at Washington Lobbyists Massie Partners. Tara is a bona fide Washington energy expert. We first came to know her early in her career as effective chief of staff to Bob Simon, who was in turn Democratic Staff Director of the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources under Jeff Bingaman. Tara came to prominence at

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Paul Sankey September 19, 2024 10:24 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Sunday Meets, Eats, Falls and Leaves

Just checking in, To see what condition my condition is in. Beautiful day again in Brooklyn Heights. Plenty of tourists. Dogs get walked. Kids get strolled. Above right in the photo, two super-yachts are parked in Brooklyn Bridge Park marina (left). This note starts with me chatting, and the second half is Greg’s latest view on natural gas, published in the light of our view that consensus is bullish US natgas. We are bearish. Reminder:

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Paul Sankey September 15, 2024 3:10 PM No Comments

Happy Happy Hour Jay Saunders & Fred Fromm

Tonight Happy Hour/Strategy Session, two of the most tenured and highly regarded Long Only Natural Resource investors in the world. We are very grateful to these great guys for doing a call at a time when we are hardly “victory lapping”. Oils and Oils Alpha Performance Source: Bloomberg, Sankey Research Actually, we equity peeps are out-performing the oil (and gas) commodity. By some way. That frankly worries me, but I get it. Source: Bloomberg, Sankey

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Paul Sankey September 12, 2024 10:39 AM No Comments