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Quote of the day: “The real problem of humanity is this: we have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions and godlike technology.” E.O Wilson
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Late For Your Own Funeral

Welcome to October 2026 covering oil – (or we say global “Energy and Energy-adjacent”). Because of course, right now it is not just about oil. AI, power. Natgas. We are sucked into industrials and defense. “In the last 72 hours, 4 tankers were hit out of 125 that passed. 3 of the 4 completed the transit, as damage was minimal” Are they firing blind? “100%. We took out 200+ small boats, 80+ radars and early

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Paul Sankey October 5, 2026 8:10 AM No Comments

Crude Chronicles on Happy Hour – $200/bbl and BUY RIG

Happy Hour is a premium product but I am making this a general distribution to support my mate “Crude Chronicles”. It is a video, because he talks about slides and charts, and if you know anything about making a great chart, you will know that this is the task of heroes. I was extremely touched that Rob credited me with encouraging him to start his business. I was a bit blase in the moment but

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Paul Sankey October 3, 2026 3:40 PM No Comments

Modern History: Hormuz (and Happy Hour)

TODAY on Happy Hour, fantastic long term analyst Rob Connors, aka Crude Chronicles, we highly recommend his research product through Substack. Register here for the Zoom at 4pm today ET. https://sankeyresearch.com/conference/sankey-strategy-session-robert-connors-interest-form/ Source: The Crude Chronicles You can sign up for Rob (https://thecrudechronicles.substack.com/) after you hear him on the call, a former sellside analyst, he has a passion for literally going to the library and grinding through deep financial and particularly commodity history. As you will

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Paul Sankey October 1, 2026 1:11 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Presumption? Hormuz, TOTALEnergies & Shell

Important note: last 24 hours we may see the beginning of a trend of weaker oil prices yet higher Treasury yields. This would be a major and concerning break of the trend of the last month of almost 1:1 postive correlation between oil prices and Treasury yields. The feeling of “something is going to break” indicator is getting to boiling point. But remember, a watched kettle never boils. ~ NFI: I did NOT get invited

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Paul Sankey September 29, 2026 10:07 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Happy Hour Halff: Empty, Not Halff Full

We enjoyed the hour with Antoine Halff, I do love the French. We were both at the IEA, Paris me manque. Antoine is a Parisian. His IEA role had massively more distinction than mine, I was a humble entry level “B3” (associate, I think I rose to “B5”), he was in charge of the Oil Market Report (Monthly OMR), which is truly a hugely important global oil periodical. Although he describes the OMR as more

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Paul Sankey September 25, 2026 12:52 PM No Comments