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A Thesis for Oil Market Price Dynamics: CUSP, the Call on Unconventional US Oil Supply, and the “Devon Put”

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Sunday Sankey

Quote of the day: The only way to deal with an unfree world is to become so absolutely free that your very existence is an act of rebellion. Albert Camus

Morning There Will Be Vol?

The two largest US natural gas E&Ps reported this week, which was interesting. Our observation would be that these companies have gone from buying volatility (hedging their production) to selling volatility (holding spare capacity of unproduced but quickly available natural gas supply) and hence will dampen volatility in US natgas. “Why have oil prices not soared on wild Middle East turmoil, oil should go to $200/bbl?” question the oil tourists. No, spare capacity massively dampens

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Paul Sankey October 31, 2024 8:20 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

BP Results: Beat? Miss? Who Cares, Fire the Board

Let’s face it, BP can’t miss. The stock sucks. It is just about the worst performing on the FTSE 100 this year, which is hardly a stellar market. Our Q3 results call here is: change the BP board. Somebody has to be held responsible for the performance of this once-great British company, whose last move was to fire the CEO for sexual misconduct. Hardly a “bravo!” for that, especially not as the board then defaulted

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Paul Sankey October 29, 2024 8:16 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Sunday Shots Fired, Aimed, Ready

Good day from Malaga, Huge rainstorms were welcomed by locals last night here in Southern Spain. We return to London tomorrow. Later today, in his weekly model portfolio update, Greg will review what happened in oil earnings and our model portfolio last week, and the huge week ahead for oil and wider market earnings reports. His book continues to perform very well, and even if his investing process may not match yours, it is highly

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Paul Sankey October 27, 2024 11:33 AM No Comments

Morning Grimaces and Grins

Good Day, Happy Hour tonight with Chase Mulvehill, IR of Baker Hughes, at peak oil field service (OFS) earnings season. Note the slightly later 5pm ET time, with apologies to those of us in Europe, but Chase is of course jammed right now. Thursday, October 24th, 5PM ET Chase Mulvehill, IR at Baker Hughes on Happy Hour RSVP Registration Link – Click Here Chase is a former sellside analyst, and we can tease out some views on the

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Paul Sankey October 24, 2024 6:18 AM No Comments

Tomorrow Happy Hour: Chase Mulvehill, IR Baker Hughes RSVP

With Baker Hughes reporting a beat overnight, and the market awaiting 2025 guidance on their call today, tomorrow we welcome BKR Investor Relations Chase Mulvehill to Happy Hour at 5pm ET – a slightly later slot. Premium Event: Date/Time – Thursday, October 24th, 5PM ET Guest – Chase Mulvehill, IR at Baker Hughes Please RSVP Registration Link – Click Here Chase and I worked together at Wolfe Research, and of course his first experience is highly impressive – four years as

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Paul Sankey October 23, 2024 6:39 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

News from the Frontline of the Nuclear Arms Race

Churchill’s Neutrinos OR Going Big on Small (Modular Reactors) This short note is mostly about nuclear power news, but we also dabble in molten salts, indirect meltdown references, fake control rooms, moon power, XOM CCS, Scandinavian architecture, and Diamondback buying unproven nuke technology. ~   One of my heroes is Churchill – my father as a young British Foreign Office civil servant once nearly knocked him back, an aging world statesman, entering as Churchill exited a

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Paul Sankey October 22, 2024 6:41 AM No Comments