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Sunday Sankey

Quote of the day: “May, she will stay, resting in my arms again.” Simon & Garfunkel, April Come She Will
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Sunday Uncertain Veblen Goods

Greetings, We can keep it shorter today, as yesterday we sent you a Greg Bordelon thematic special on China energy tariffs, not to mention he beat me this evening and released his Model Portfolio note just now. The China note yesterday I most enjoyed reading & editing, and adding fun asides, from the Delta lounge at LAX on Friday night before I took the red-eye back here to Brooklyn. No wonder I never normally take

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Paul Sankey April 27, 2025 8:17 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Love Letter to Ethane (from the Frontline of the US-China Trade War)

He said, Xi said (nothing). We all suffer lunacy in tracking the often-antagonistic, sometimes-capitulative iterations of this “nonsensical” trade war. Headlines this week have drifted towards hyperbole, portents of the death of US-China energy trade – especially oil and LNG. In this note we tit-tat US-China energy. Key points: US energy trade with China is one worldscale trade where we, the USA, are in major trade surplus, globally the dominant supply player, and effectively control

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Paul Sankey April 26, 2025 4:55 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Postcard from Calgary

Postponing today’s Happy Hour owing to a scheduling clash. (Dan Dreyfus CIO at Bornite) – he will be back soon, on a new Thursday. At the very least, next week Greg Bordelon and I will do a State of Union regarding my current trip to the Calgary and the West Coast, and his model portfolio which is weathering extremely well. Huge up days are not his thing, but overall, Greg is performing very well, where

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Paul Sankey April 24, 2025 1:58 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Sunday Kaws, Claws and the Japanese

Happy Easter! Source: X.com – Tejano is kind of a buddy, real oil guy, runs wireline in the Permian ~ I am heading to Calgary tomorrow. With all the action in the Middle East, Europe, it might feel that I am heading in the wrong direction, but who knew that Canada would be the first and biggest loser from Trump II? We shall see, the mood apparently is Canadian fury at Trump II. Star meeting

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Paul Sankey April 20, 2025 5:25 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Morning: Tide’s Half Way Out, Who’s Wearing Trunks?

Happy Hour 4pm tomorrow we got us an engineer! Macro guru Michael Kao is well-known for Kaoboy Musings – on Substack and Kaos Theory. His twitter handle is UrbanKaoboy. In a crisis, we all become credit analysts. Michael is a stone-cold macro expert. Register Here: https://sankeyresearch.com/conference/sankey-strategy-session-michael-kao-urbankaoboy-interest-form/ Source: Toptradersunplugged.com ~ Here are a couple of charts I have been looking at, rather back of a beermat, pondering that the tide is half way out. The tide

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Paul Sankey April 16, 2025 10:04 AM No Comments

Sunday Auto Armageddon & Peace with Iran

One of the recent Happy Hour lines that struck me, came from a Republican lobbyist who was a guest in the interim between Trump winning, and Trump being inaugurated. He repeated “tariffs” strongly, then followed up by saying that “During Trump 1, our firm had a track record of 85% success in getting an exemption on tariffs for our clients.” Hmmm. Sure enough, this weekend we have the “Tim Apple Tariff Exemption” whereby suddenly per

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Paul Sankey April 13, 2025 4:14 PM No Comments