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Love Letter to Ethane (from the Frontline of the US-China Trade War)

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Sunday Sankey

Quote of the day:

There are moments, above all on June evenings, when the lakes that hold our moons are sucked into the earth, and nothing is left but wine and the touch of a hand.

Charles Morgan
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Morning War and Peace, Crime and Punishment

Russia, on Happy Hour this Thursday. Ron Smith, Russia expert, 4pm Zoom. We could not publicize this event sooner, as Ron was on Jury Duty call up for yesterday and… trail collapsed. He is good to join. Ronald Smith is currently the founding partner of Emerging Markets Oil & Gas Consulting Partners (EMOGCP), which he established in 2020. He has 25 years’ experience in equity capital markets and the Russian oil and gas sector, including

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Paul Sankey June 10, 2025 9:48 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Valuing AI in Texas Pacific Land (& Permian Oils)

“There is a Lot of Land in West Texas” One of the oldest oil companies in currently quoted US oil equities, Texas Pacfiic Land, originating in 1871, is a barely known outsider that emerged seemingly from nowhere to S&P500 inclusion in 2024: TPL now has a larger market cap (no debt) than Devon, Coterra, Halliburton, Antero or Permian Resources. In this note we deconstruct TPL’s valuation, and establish the massive implied AI Data Center land

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Paul Sankey June 8, 2025 12:11 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Morning Ethane, Dysprosium, and Roses

Happy Hour today Mark Rossano, just the man to talk actual data, whether China, US, Europe, oil, natgas, or commodities. Great guest, encyclopedic. He fits perfectly with today’s note. Register here: 4pm today, by Zoom. https://sankeyresearch.com/conference/sankey-strategy-session-mark-rossano-interest-form-2/ Arcane data? Committed readers will be familiar with the whole US ethane-to-China trade which we covered, concluding it had to be exempted, and it was. That was shortly after we pointed out US energy dependence on Canada, notably for

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Paul Sankey June 5, 2025 9:30 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Sunday Pimm’s & Bicycle Thieves

Greetings, Just like that, the month of May 2025 was gone. Always a blink, the wonderful month of blossoms. Thus, Panama hats, white linens and blue seersucker summer wardrobe-ready, Wall Street summer is upon us. Enjoy your weekend, let’s try to relax. A stroll today, to help you think easy, let me give you a reminder of the famous (and generic) Sunday Sankey Pimm’s recipe, which drink converted at least one hedge fund portfolio manager

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Paul Sankey June 1, 2025 2:48 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Morning TINA turner

Today, Ed Morse at 4pm by Zoom on Happy Hour with one of his many mentees, Jan Stuart. Should be great, Ed is ready to rumble; we chatted yesterday. The backdrop is well-known, we will focus on the geopolitics Saudi/OPEC, Middle East and above all China demand, with of course Jan providing outstanding oil market work. Ed has modestly demurred on talking too much Kazakhstan/Russia but has suggest a future guest on the subject, who

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Paul Sankey May 29, 2025 11:10 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Hess: the Beginning of the End; What Price?

Tomorrow Happy Hour, as we inexorably plough through OPEC+ meetings after meetings without meeting, we have oil analyst Hall of Famer Ed Morse to talk about the world. Providing next generation Hall of Fame, analyst Jan Stuart will join. Full bios with next invite, suffice it to say that Ed is Senior Advisor and Commodities Analyst at Hartree Partners, a large, global, privately held commodities firm headquartered in NYC. Jan is global energy strategist at

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Paul Sankey May 28, 2025 9:15 AM No Comments