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Quote of the day: In a war of ego, the loser always wins
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

The Knicks, Vultures, and “The Art of the Deal”

As I write this, we are rushing to get ahead of the 3:30 p.m. ET press conference planned for President Trump today regarding the seemingly endless “Deal Very Soon” situation with Iran. Let’s repeat our quote from the 2000s Iran nuclear EU “It’s like playing chess with a monkey. You get them to checkmate, and then they swallow the king.” Watching the U.S.–Iran dynamic right now feels exactly like watching a Knicks game: we constantly

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Paul Sankey June 14, 2026 4:26 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

CASY Wild: Wings, Pizza, Gasoline (and BP)

Happy Hour today with Neil McMahon is POSTPONED until 24 June, so, just a couple of weeks. And he will have been in the Middle East in the interim, so that works. Kimmeridge (for he is founding partner) has declared Final Investment Decision (FID) on Commonwealth — a 9.5 Mtpa (~1.25 bcf/d), $13bn Louisiana LNG export project with 2030 start-up — in partnership with Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Energy and CPP Investments (24.1% and 31% of

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Paul Sankey June 11, 2026 1:01 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Sunday 100 Days of Hormuzitude

So there it is, 100 Days of Hormuz. Homework this week is easy, just a few words on Bunker Markets. Globally refiners are straining to meet max clean product needs (JetFuel, Distillate, Mogas), and it is marginal products that are heading towards physical shortages in June, such as US base oils (the Pennzoil for your AC Cobra, there are already shortages as we have covered), and Bunker fuel for ships, a marginal product dominated by

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Paul Sankey June 7, 2026 6:37 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Google -$85bn vs ExxonMobil +$25bn; Happy Hour starting NOW with Paul Cheng

Google vs ExxonMobil cash return A client emailed this morning regarding yesterday’s note. We opened with a couple of bullets: “And when they write the history of the AI bubble 2022-2027, the issuance by Google of $85bn of stock in early June 2026 will be one red line that was crossed.” He stated: “I cannot believe more people aren’t paying attention to this. This is SO obviously “the sign”. Yesterday listening to Bloomberg Surveillance, my

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Paul Sankey June 4, 2026 3:56 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

DOE data: Don’t Break the Rules; Merely Test Their Elasticity.

Yet again, we find the Hormuz situation has actually deteriorated. CNBC today interviewed Israeli PM Netanyahu. He remains hard line, talking Iranian regime collapse. Bond vigilantes are marauding today, 30 year going through 5% again. Equity market doesn’t like it. And when they write the history of the AI bubble 2022-2027, the issuance by Google of $80bn of stock in early June 2026 will be one red line that was crossed. We have said Argentina

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Paul Sankey June 3, 2026 6:42 PM No Comments

Replay: Brett Gibbs BI on Biofuels outlook

Dear Premium Subscriber, thanks so much for your support. Part of the refining bull case here is the soaring cost of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) and the biofuel market tightness in general. I thought Brett Gibbs of Bloomberg Intelligence did a great job of covering the story in one hour. The replay starts around 12mins in terms of actual content. Replay here: https://analysthub.zoom.us/rec/share/NhhB3zUBjgnL5ku-yC4foMLUH2YcpNH1VFCVsHb-FN3Fhj9SGs3AlXaMPyj1drq-.GM_0DATdhkRhx8jX Below, D6 and D4 RINs, not gaining much attention in terms of

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Paul Sankey June 2, 2026 2:19 PM No Comments