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A Thesis for Oil Market Price Dynamics: CUSP, the Call on Unconventional US Oil Supply, and the “Devon Put”

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Quote of the day: “To read a poem in January is as lovely as to go for a walk in June.” – Jean-Paul Sartre.
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Morning Shantih Shantih Shantih

Today graveyard slot, market shuts at 1pm, Greg Bordelon and I will do an “open mike” Happy Hour session today at 12pm into the close. Join us for a final act before July 4th. And remember that as an American you have a constitutional right to take the 5th . Next week Happy Hour we have Rob West, of Thunder Said Energy. Rob is clearly one of the best analysts, doing physics-based analysis, on Wall

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Paul Sankey July 3, 2024 10:00 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Uzi on Happy Hour today 1pm; What to Discuss

A friendly banker called this morning on today’s latest oil deal, by $SM, and let’s just slightly varnish this: He asked “What the fk are they doing?” $5bn market cap SM was seen as a takeover target. Stock is down -8% here. SM ENERGY ANNOUNCES HIGHLY ACCRETIVE $2.0 BILLION UINTA BASIN ACQUISITION, 11% INCREASE TO FIXED DIVIDEND AND RELOADED $500 MILLION SHARE REPURCHASE PROGRAM I couldn’t provide a value add answer to his question, but

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Paul Sankey June 27, 2024 10:08 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Swimming Pool Shorts ($POOL) with an Uzi

Subject to confirmation, this week Happy Hour we have Uzi Yemin, Chairman of Delek USA refining, from Tel Aviv with an update on all things Middle East and refining. With Frank Kelly last week we are on a geopolitical run. Presidential “debate” incoming (June 27th after Uzi). I am valiantly trying to move summer Happy Hour to around 1pm, to allow people their Thursday evening activities. We will confirm Uzi shortly. ~ Weekly video from

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Paul Sankey June 25, 2024 8:31 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Sunday Nor Any a Drop to Drink (World Tour)

Hello there, My son just graduated college and is applying for jobs. For a premium company application he faced the following question: Q: “How do you decide how much time to allocate to a task?” I found myself pondering this when I decided this week to look at water. ~ Non-answer on time. I took a look at water and am banging it out today, rather than spending another seven years on this massive subject,

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Paul Sankey June 23, 2024 1:24 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Speeding in East Hampton, or Not

Happy Hour tomorrow Frank Kelly, our politics correspondent, leaning on 40 years of experience in DC. Frank knows everyone, I asked him on after our Trump note last weekend, wondering what the theories are on this upcoming election. We think it could be huge for oil. Tomorrow 4pm ET – note we are moving Happy Hours towards lunchtime for summer, but this one sticks at 4pm. Register for Frank here: Sankey Strategy Session | Frank

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Paul Sankey June 19, 2024 4:56 PM No Comments