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Quote of the day: In a war of ego, the loser always wins
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Sunday Gulf War III Week 2 – Tanker Passage, What Tanker Passage?

Well, that was quite a week. And there it is, oil through $100/bbl on the Tokyo open. It is blatantly clear that the Trump Administration had zero, nada, nothing, as contingency plan for Iran declaring the Strait of Hormuz shut to transit. Even now, their $20bn insurance knee jerk response has been completely ineffective. We are facing the largest overall oil & gas volume outage of my career, which started in 1990, Gulf War 1.

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Paul Sankey March 8, 2026 7:56 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

AI Chips: Taiwan, LNG, Helium, Qatar, and Hormuz

We covered Qatar in a note & conference call in this first week of Gulf War III. Who controls the Strait of Hormuz? Iran within the China axis, with Russian support. As of today. Arguably the US needs boots on the ground to control the Iranian side of the Straits. On Friday the head of QatarGas and Qatar energy minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi went front page in the Financial Times to highlight the sustained outage

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Paul Sankey March 7, 2026 3:44 PM No Comments

Qatar/Global LNG Zoom Call Replay for Premium Clients (you)

Great call by Gordon Shearer and Ira Joseph, in a tight hour and five minutes. Impressive stuff, with just the right mix of agreement and divergence. https://analysthub.zoom.us/rec/share/v1JXsMqaeTzUoF0xKt4R53Jba_ElQ8yLAFQcgozce1aYJUWwooFZQzUr2jEz6elc.RJ0a8ilz6ItNKh7r Key stories I missed in Qatar note. 1) No emergency shutdown, it was orderly. Big difference 2) This story was described as almost bigger than the Qatar story. No LNG tanker has ever exploded, much less sunk, in the industry’s history. All seaborne trade is now higher risk.

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Paul Sankey March 6, 2026 6:35 AM No Comments

Global LNG Strategy Session 4pm (now) – Ira Joseph and Gordon Shearer

Thursday, March 5th at 4pm ET Ira Joseph – Senior Research Fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Energy Policy Gordon Shearer – Senior Advisor LNG, Poten & Partners * Premium Client Call * Registration – https://sankeyresearch.com/conference/sankey-strategy-session-ira-joseph-gordon-shearer-interest-form/ Client junior consumer analyst was asking about British American Tobacco getting hit today – defensive stock? Operations in Bangladesh, as shown in our note yesterday evening, dependent on Qatari LNG. Plenty on Korea getting really short natgas already, and Kuwait filling up oil storage fast.

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Paul Sankey March 5, 2026 3:16 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Qatar LNG Shutdown: Global Energy Crisis (ex-US)

LNG superpower Qatar finds itself having been bombed by both Israel AND Iran within the past year. Now a gigantic oil and gas outage, and notably the unprecedented shutdown of the world’s single largest LNG facility, which is a multi-month outage, will roil markets far more than is currently being discounted in relatively muted energy and equity market responses. The world is sold out of LNG supply, and this gas would represent around 2mb/d of

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Paul Sankey March 4, 2026 10:03 PM No Comments

A Major Client Asks… Intelligence Responds

Paul, Saw your comments re: the Strait [of Hormuz]. Trying to get a sense of why tanker volume is so low between 1. Insurance 2. Voluntary – “let’s wait” 3. Iranian posturing 4. Fear of attacks 5. Actual attacks… etc… Agree with you that certainly don’t have the Navy to do it and mining seems like an extreme step so question really I guess is what does it take to get tankers (non Chinese/Russian) moving

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Paul Sankey March 2, 2026 6:45 PM No Comments