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Sunday Sankey

Quote of the day: “May, she will stay, resting in my arms again.” Simon & Garfunkel, April Come She Will
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Hess: the Beginning of the End; What Price?

Tomorrow Happy Hour, as we inexorably plough through OPEC+ meetings after meetings without meeting, we have oil analyst Hall of Famer Ed Morse to talk about the world. Providing next generation Hall of Fame, analyst Jan Stuart will join. Full bios with next invite, suffice it to say that Ed is Senior Advisor and Commodities Analyst at Hartree Partners, a large, global, privately held commodities firm headquartered in NYC. Jan is global energy strategist at

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Paul Sankey May 28, 2025 9:15 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Sunday Mexico, Pemex, and the Destruction of Multiples

Happy Memorial Day weekend, We’ve talked about the vicious thugs that came back to the neighborhood. Hanging around in a sinister mob, scowling at observers, never look them in the eye, they are genuinely violent and dangerous. They are, the Bond Vigilantes. Funny thing is, I’m terrified of them too, but I look at long term interest rates and think “Rates are not THAT high”. Maybe that is what terrifies me. Below, yields since 1970.

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Paul Sankey May 25, 2025 12:52 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Morning Hunter K, Valero P/BV, and HD

Today Airlines Happy Hour with Hunter Keay. We sent you his bio yesterday, briefly he was a the top airlines analyst on the sellside when we worked together at Wolfe Research, now he is CFO of Avelo Airlines: Date/Time – today, Thursday, May 22nd, 4PM ET Registration Link – https://sankeyresearch.com/conference/sankey-strategy-session-hunter-keay-interest-form/ ~ Tax bill is having idiosyncratic effects, beyond the deficit effect that is roiling markets as the T Bill reacts: May 22 (Reuters) – Shares

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Paul Sankey May 22, 2025 11:15 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Sunday Thematic Woodside: Stateside

This Sunday note is primarily further to Woodside. We had dinner with Graham Tiver, Woodside CFO, last Tuesday evening. ~ Right now we are focusing on thematic research, because there ain’t no point in chasing this market day-to-day. With that said, to now comment very briefly on markets, we had Torsten Slok on Happy Hour Thursday, so we are covered on macro. We emailed you his slides. Every indicator with the possible exception of US

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Paul Sankey May 18, 2025 2:30 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Morning Torsten, Dangote, PBF & Cheaper Plane Tickets

Good news, Torsten Slok replied to my confirmation email this morning as he always does: almost immediately, politely with good humour, extremely concisely. That is like his work. He told me when he joined Apollo they had no requirement for him to publish research, but he wanted to keep publishing regularly “because my hamster wheel runs a little faster than that”. When you hear the speed he delivers this thoughts, it makes perfect sense. Register

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Paul Sankey May 15, 2025 10:34 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

A Theory of Oil Inventory & Torsten Slok Happy Hour

Tomorrow Happy Hour we welcome back one of the hottest Strategists on Wall Street, Torsten Slok! Zoom 4pm ET. He has been causing a sensation with his widely distributed macro work for private equity giant Apollo. One question I want to ask him: how many participants did you get on  your immediately-post-“Liberation Day” strategy call? A lot. My guess: 20,000? Our own Happy Hour was brilliantly timed that same week, actually a day earlier post-Tariff

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Paul Sankey May 14, 2025 10:00 AM No Comments