BP: the Camel and the Horse

By Paul Sankey Published on April 6, 2024 at 2:38 PM

In this note we consider BP’s position in BPX, its US onshore play, in the context of the overall investment case for BP. Source: BP The following thoughts emerged, embracing multiple metaphors: “A camel is a horse designed by a committee”. BP seems designed by committee. It is a jack of all trades, where it should be the master of one. What is the elevator pitch for buying a stock? BP takes a trans-continental train …

Read More

Gas Stations & the Weakening Low End Consumer

By Paul Sankey Published on March 25, 2024 at 2:11 PM

Gas station stocks: low end consumer weakening. Gas station play Alimentation Couche Tard ($ATD) profit warning. Negative implication for refiners with gas stations, such as DINO. We are backing off our “long gas station stocks” stance but still prefer MUSA (Murphy USA), with its massive buyback and low volatility. But watch for a couple of tough quarters ahead. We like long gasoline (equity ETF is $UGA) as a trade into Memorial Day on supply tightness, …

Read More

Sunday Coming in Hot… and Wet, and Cold

By Paul Sankey Published on March 24, 2024 at 7:13 PM

Delayed last night in Boston by severe storms and a ground stop at La Guardia, eventually we were the last flight to leave Logan Terminal A, and barreled into New York like a bucking bronco, especially for those of us at the back of the shuttle. We landed screaming hot, through the driving rain to what felt like a skidding stop. Welcome back to New York. Freezing! Three weeks on the road, with a final …

Read More