By Paul Sankey
Published on January 19, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Welcome to a historic week ahead, Day 1 Trump II… INCOMING SLB opens year-end 2024 oil earnings season with a winner – since the start of 2025 we like the oils. Call us twitchy bulls. The word China scares us, but we are looking for China demand upside starting with winter and scrambling for non-sanctioned oil. Our feeble bull case: Asian LNG is now more expensive than diesel in China, which should reverse marginal demand …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on January 12, 2025 at 5:45 PM
One mega-policy that is emerging for Trump II is an old classic: The Monroe Doctrine. In this note we run through an argument that says, “truly anything can happen with Trump and foreign policy.” Pinball market. The key uncertainty is China, where economic weakness in China suggests Trump holds the power Shipping stocks ripping imply Russia-Ukraine will be a protracted negotiation; we see Biden tightening shadow fleet sanctions as strengthening Trump’s and Saudi’s hands; and …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on October 6, 2024 at 2:36 PM
Good day, We dropped a weekly video “Global Oil Risk” from London Friday and shortly thereafter did a podcast for “Mr 30m Downloads” Jack Farley, returning a favour for him being a guest on Happy Hour this week, especially as we buried him with a Rosh Hashanah-diminished crowd (ie Thursday’s Happy Hour very quiet, mid-Rosh). Happy New Year to those that celebrate. L’shana tovah u’metukah! ~ Those appearances have thrown me right into the maelstrom …
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