Morning Comstock: Thelma, the Black Knight, & Forrest, bearish natgas

By Paul Sankey Published on February 15, 2024 at 10:03 AM

The market whisper is that natgas is heading to break the buck (<$1/mmbtu Henry Hub). Time to buy natgas? We are not switching stance until Comstock capitulates. The company reported results and held its conference call yesterday. ~ ExxonMobil: the company risks Maduro vs Guyana as 1:10 risk where one is low. Clients are asking about Chevron’s delayed proxy too. CVX say the S-4 will be issued this quarter and “nothing recently in the news …

Thematic: What Happens in Gas Vegas Stays in Golden Pass (US Natgas 2024)

By Paul Sankey Published on December 16, 2023 at 9:43 AM

We have argued for several years that Saudi/OPEC oil production cuts are bearish for US natgas prices, as they encourage US Permian players to grow oil supply, with attendant associated “free” natgas and natural gas liquids (NGL) production. With oil price economics at $70/bbl still justifying aggressive activity/growth in major US oil basins, vast quantities of natural gas are produced as a by-product. Excess gas supply in the Permian has led to the start up …