US E&P M&A: Gobbler’s Knob – Again

By Paul Sankey Published on June 1, 2024 at 12:27 PM

“That must mean we’re up here at Gobbler’s Knob, waiting for the forecast from the world’s most famous weatherman, Punxsutawney Phil.” Phil Connors (Bill Murray), Groundhog Day (1993) We are back to writing about E&P M&A … again. Our conclusions are broadly unchanged: Big companies are being incentivized by the market to take over the small, but with an evolution on the margin that finds asset quality now of equal importance to valuation; we are …

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OPEC, Happy Hour, One Day, Next Week

By Paul Sankey Published on May 30, 2024 at 10:38 AM

Focus OPEC for the next two Happy Hours. At 4pm today, this evening a quick check-in with Kathleen Kelley “OPEC Whisperer” into this weekend’s meeting. It’s not long since we did a full session with Kathleen, so this evening is a quick tyre-kick. Next week, going into much more depth on oil markets, we have barrel counting legend Mr Jan Stuart, energy market economist, and my first office-mate at my first post-college career job: we …

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COP Buying Marathon Oil 15% Premium All Stock

By Paul Sankey Published on May 29, 2024 at 7:55 AM

First thought is not only Devon, as always the bridesmaid, but ever the bridesmaid to ConocoPhillips, who trumped them for Shell’s Permian asset package (~$9bn) and now announces the takeover of Marathon Oil. Devon was seen as in pole position to take over MRO; these are multi-basin deals and the best first for MRO were COP or Devon. Second thought, good news to get a decent premium back in oil deals. “It shows a decent …

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