Hess, CVX, XOM Guyana: Golden Goose, Tight Holes

By Paul Sankey Published on March 12, 2024 at 11:22 PM

Heading to Houston next week, following major oil leaders, lots of chat on the biggest oil corporate story right now. In this note we update our delineation of Guyana’s Stabroek block, with a view to the value that is essentially disputed in the takeover battle between Chevron and ExxonMobil for Hess. Many have noted how disclosure on Guyana from XOM was shut down nearly two years ago, and we speculate. We delineate Hess value, as …

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Morning FANG-Endeavor $200: Love Bite

By Paul Sankey Published on February 13, 2024 at 8:47 AM

At 6x pro forma EBITDA, FANG should be worth $180-190/share considering $11-12B EBITDA, less purchase-price adjusted net debt and midstream subsidiary Venom (VNOM) non-controlling interest. From there, it is a gravitational pull to $200. Everyone loves round numbers. Like 5,500 on the S&P500. Or Nvidia $1,000. But for oils, we have to rely on fundamental cashflow-based valuation. Source: Company reports, Sankey Research ~ Today’s WSJ feature on Autrey Stephens, the owner of Endeavor Energy, confirms …

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Devon Energy: Stop! Unleash the FANG Within…

By Paul Sankey Published on February 10, 2024 at 11:23 AM

Never Let a Good Crisis Go To Waste There was a groan went up at Sankey Research at this week’s Reuters report that Devon was in talks to acquire Enerplus Corp (ERF). Why? The news broke as we were completing this note, which argues exactly the OPPOSITE strategy for Devon, than buying a company in the Bakken. We think they should SELLL the Bakken. And more besides, and we outline that herein. We agree DVN …

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