By Paul Sankey
Published on January 12, 2025 at 5:45 PM
One mega-policy that is emerging for Trump II is an old classic: The Monroe Doctrine. In this note we run through an argument that says, “truly anything can happen with Trump and foreign policy.” Pinball market. The key uncertainty is China, where economic weakness in China suggests Trump holds the power Shipping stocks ripping imply Russia-Ukraine will be a protracted negotiation; we see Biden tightening shadow fleet sanctions as strengthening Trump’s and Saudi’s hands; and …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on December 29, 2024 at 6:13 PM
Greetings, In the main part of this note, we examine two of the many key issues of 2025: German/EU natgas China sanctions There are so many counter-currents, that in this attempt to take some of the complexity and contradiction out of 2025 outlooks, by (mildly) deeper on both… we reveal yet more complexity. To keep it actionable, later today at 6pm ET, our resident master of clarity, Mr Greg Bordelon, Sankey Research executive partner, publishes …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on September 29, 2024 at 2:23 PM
What happens if oil breaks $50/bbl? From our April note earlier this year introducing our CUSP concept: “Forecasting agencies, trading houses, banks, analysts, and journalists, continue to be anchored in the redundant methodology for analyzing the global oil market, namely deriving the ‘Call On OPEC.’ We posit rather, that the oil market works today on “Call on US Supply.” We call it CUSP. The key balance in global oil market is “Call on US (Unconventional) …
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