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A Thesis for Oil Market Price Dynamics: CUSP, the Call on Unconventional US Oil Supply, and the “Devon Put”

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Sunday Sankey

Quote of the day: The only way to deal with an unfree world is to become so absolutely free that your very existence is an act of rebellion. Albert Camus

Happy Hour tomorrow, Aaron Cutler, DC Lobbyist, Hogan Lovells

Premium Event Date/Time – Thursday, November 21st 4PM ET Guest – Aaron Cutler Registration Link – Click Here As a former senior House leadership staffer, Aaron Cutler contributes high-level knowledge of policy and regulatory matters to his practice at Hogan Lovells. Now a partner and leader of their Government Relations and Public Affairs (GRPA) practice, he lobbies Congress in insurance and financial services; energy; sports and entertainment; and technology, media, and telecom sectors. He has advised clients on cryptocurrency, energy, procurement,

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Paul Sankey November 20, 2024 5:36 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Sunday Choose Your Mates Wisely, Because You Can’t Choose Your Family

We sent you a thematic yesterday at a slightly odd time, late Saturday evening for me here in London, on the UK North Sea and APA. We were very negative on both. This morning, a major long only client wrote from the US: “This [North Sea/APA] write up should be taught in both history classes and policy classes TODAY. Wonderful work and I love reading these. Thank you.” Awww, shucks, kudos as ever to Greg

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Paul Sankey November 17, 2024 11:28 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

The UK North Sea & Apache: where NOT to Invest

In this note we outline the bear case for the UK North Sea, and for APA (formerly Apache Oil) with a price target of $15 on APA (stock closed Friday at >$22) “before we get interested”. We postulate takeover and activist strategy at the end of this note. We slam the UK government and UK eco-fascists for abject lack of global context in their pursuit of “Net Zero”. The UK economy is low emission, and

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Paul Sankey November 16, 2024 3:33 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Suncor, or a Rose by any other name would smell Tourmaline

My standard line on the challenge as an analyst, is that you make a good call, and within three months everyone else starts saying it. Good calls can’t remain exclusive. Sure enough, today the IEA is out questioning whether China oil demand has peaked, making 2024 an epic (bearish) year in global oil market history. Yesterday I was reading an article from CGEP mooting the same call. We will come back to the subject Sunday,

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Paul Sankey November 14, 2024 8:04 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Morning Emissions? Schmissions!

Great guests this week on Happy Hour – CEO and team of what has been over time, our favourite North American natgas play: Date/Time – Thursday, November 14th 4PM ET Guest – Mike Rose, Chairman & CEO at Tourmaline Oil & Jamie Heard, VP Capital Markets [and natgas markets wizard] at Tourmaline Oil Registration Link – Click Here Mike Rose is a Calgary legend with good reason, and always a great call. Plenty to talk

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Paul Sankey November 12, 2024 8:23 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Sunday Veterans, Newbies, & Seagulls

Afternon, Back in London. Where was memorialized this Sunday morning the 11th minute, 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month that spelled the end of World War I. We were out this morning at the Horse Guards Parade (photo above) to watch the Remembrance Sunday parades, with a friend of mine solemnly marching as an officer in the front row of the Black Watch (Royal Highlanders) regimental group. It was moving to

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Paul Sankey November 10, 2024 2:21 PM No Comments