By Paul Sankey
Published on February 27, 2022 at 12:22 PM
Well, this bloody mess was why we could not believe Russia would launch a full Ukraine Invasion. Reports that Ukraine has fought back and held Kharkiv are somewhat incredible – Ukraine’s second largest city is to the east and very close to Russia. The idea that Russia could not take control here, is a massive problem for Putin. Military experts are expressing surprise that Russia has not obtained air control, and is suffering logistics issues. […]
Read More
By Paul Sankey
Published on February 25, 2022 at 9:21 AM
Calls: pushing $MRO. 15% cash return to shareholders this year at least. Thematic note available. Yesterday was a puff move from solar, wind, but E&Ps fell, makes no sense. We like the thematic theory that you buy wind on Russia invading Ukraine, but we think this was a short covering move/macro move (the market rip yesterday led by solar). Short term trade, short oil into coming Iran deal, then buy the weakness (commodity, stay long […]
Read More
By Paul Sankey
Published on February 24, 2022 at 8:18 AM
Huge shock. Particularly to major European clients that had stated their house view: no invasion. Their view was weeks of noise, no invasion. What will happen to this extraordinary chart? We see demand destruction at $120/bbl, and think oil prices will continue to go to that level of demand destruction if US demand remains as strong as it currently is. Lagging US economic strength and upcoming summer speak to ongoing demand strength, even if it […]
Read More
