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A Thesis for Oil Market Price Dynamics: CUSP, the Call on Unconventional US Oil Supply, and the “Devon Put”

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Sunday Sankey

Quote of the day: The only way to deal with an unfree world is to become so absolutely free that your very existence is an act of rebellion. Albert Camus
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Morning OMG Mets but SMH BP

Late nights London time these days, what with watching the Mets – cut me and I bleed blue and orange as nobody ever said about me, but I do follow quite closely because the doorman next door in Brooklyn Heights is a big Mets fan, and I chat to him every morning when I am home. Tonight we have no late night London Yankees nor Mets baseball but, in chronological order: Happy Hour today Thursday,

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Paul Sankey October 10, 2024 9:39 AM No Comments

Morning Pick Your Poison

The internet here at my parent’s apartment is so bad that I looked at buying a Starlink. £299 from Curry’s (British ~Best Buy). I’m tempted to, but in this basement flat, we only have a 20ft square patch of skylight. So now I am running internet from my iPhone and it seems okay including a full Bloomberg. Hats off to technology. And frankly, hats off to Elon. How did he come up with – and

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Paul Sankey October 9, 2024 7:26 AM No Comments

Sunday Knife Fights, Gun Fights, and Missile Strikes

Good day, We dropped a weekly video “Global Oil Risk” from London Friday and shortly thereafter did a podcast for “Mr 30m Downloads” Jack Farley, returning a favour for him being a guest on Happy Hour this week, especially as we buried him with a Rosh Hashanah-diminished crowd (ie Thursday’s Happy Hour very quiet, mid-Rosh). Happy New Year to those that celebrate. L’shana tovah u’metukah!  ~ Those appearances have thrown me right into the maelstrom

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Paul Sankey October 6, 2024 2:36 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Morning Wotcha from London

Greetings from London, Happy Hour tonight, we are going meta and chatting with one of the world’s top finance podcasters, JACK FARLEY who has some 30m downloads for his regular show “Forward Guidance” that has featured a pantheon of top macro and economic gurus for the past several years. Jack is now in transition to a new platform Monetary Matters, and we are grabbing him from the beach, so to speak. Date/Time – Thursday, October

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Paul Sankey October 3, 2024 9:44 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Sunday Thematic: What Happens if Oil Breaks $50/bbl?

What happens if oil breaks $50/bbl? From our April note earlier this year introducing our CUSP concept: “Forecasting agencies, trading houses, banks, analysts, and journalists, continue to be anchored in the redundant methodology for analyzing the global oil market, namely deriving the ‘Call On OPEC.’ We posit rather, that the oil market works today on “Call on US Supply.” We call it CUSP. The key balance in global oil market is “Call on US (Unconventional)

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Paul Sankey September 29, 2024 2:23 PM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

“Everybody off the Bus. I want the Shiny People over here…”

Boy, was I happy after our Happy Hour last evening in terms of content. We had Rob Raymond lined up to talk about private equity in energy with a focus on data centers, when the first dial-in appeared and was a major long only natural resources portfolio manager – one of the biggest in the world – dialed in from an Uber in Houston on his way back from a field field trip to Guyana.

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Paul Sankey September 27, 2024 10:36 AM No Comments