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A Thesis for Oil Market Price Dynamics: CUSP, the Call on Unconventional US Oil Supply, and the “Devon Put”

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Quote of the day: The only way to deal with an unfree world is to become so absolutely free that your very existence is an act of rebellion. Albert Camus
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Red Lines and Yard Sales

Daylight Savings Time claimed yet another victim, as I flew in from Abu Dhabi last evening, landed 8.30pm, and was whizzing back to London base in a cab, when Greg called: “Are you getting on Happy Hour?” he asked. Sure enough – “it’s not until 10pm” was the wrong answer. We hacked it from the back of the cab. ~ At ADIPEC I was watching a CVX executive and a Microsoft executive give the usual

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Paul Sankey November 8, 2024 7:30 AM No Comments

Autocratic Capitalism, Augustus, November Heat

ٱلسَّلَامُ عَلَيْكُمْ, May peace be with you. Greetings from the United Arab Emirates, in Abu Dhabi, ain’t no elections. Ain’t no elections in any of the UAE, you get the ruling families. Let’s hope they all keep getting on and supporting each other, history says that families, not least in the Middle East, can have problems. But it is a global communality, family dramas. The parallels on this trip, across the course of the history

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Paul Sankey November 7, 2024 7:02 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

Sunday Heroes and Villains

مرحبًا Greetings. I swam to the Antarctic yesterday. I will explain how I managed that – ha ha ha – later in this note, when we talk about Dubai, which like gold, has become a consensus store of wealth. A measure of Dubai: “There are penguins at the Antarctic” said my host, as he eased his speedboat towards a fake island, as I furiously covered myself in sunscreen, through the 5 kph (knots per hour

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Paul Sankey November 3, 2024 8:45 AM No Comments
Energy Transition
Paul Sankey

When Results Become a “Yard Sale” $CVI $CRK $GEL

In the US suburbs, those Halloween avenues, a “yard sale” is an innocent family rite of passage where the garage is cleared, and in the excitement you try to dump as many of the kids grown-out-of toys. In our world, is the equivalent of a major oil company announcing yet another disposal target. But in skiing, a “yard sale” describes a level of wipe out so spectacular that gear is smashed off the skier, poles,

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Paul Sankey November 1, 2024 7:33 AM No Comments

Happy Hour & Market Cap Clarification

Happy Hour tonight/this week defers to a heavy day for earnings today followed by Halloween this evening. We will not add to this calendar today. Enjoy. We shall for sure return for Happy Hour next week, if only for Greg and I to review earnings, and for me to make comments on the ADIPEC conference that I am attending in Abu Dhabi next week. ~ We have had tremendous positive feedback for our BP commentary

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Paul Sankey October 31, 2024 3:33 PM No Comments

Morning There Will Be Vol?

The two largest US natural gas E&Ps reported this week, which was interesting. Our observation would be that these companies have gone from buying volatility (hedging their production) to selling volatility (holding spare capacity of unproduced but quickly available natural gas supply) and hence will dampen volatility in US natgas. “Why have oil prices not soared on wild Middle East turmoil, oil should go to $200/bbl?” question the oil tourists. No, spare capacity massively dampens

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Paul Sankey October 31, 2024 8:20 AM No Comments