Hormuz Crisis Series: European Jets Jets Jets

By Paul Sankey Published on April 18, 2026 at 4:37 PM

Last week, having satisfied my curiosity on Taiwan and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) — which basically concluded that TSMC will keep getting cheap reliable subsidized government electricity even if it means Mrs Cheng has no aircon. That is globally important; AI is the counter theme to Hormuz and after TSMC’s earnings call, we concluded they are good to go for another quarter of crisis, so relatively very comfortable. Nothing it at all comfortable right now in …

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BP: Trading Statement; Raising Our Brent forecast to $120/bbl for 2026

By Paul Sankey Published on April 14, 2026 at 10:32 AM

With everybody yelling about the massive disconnect of Dated Brent over paper Brent, which has been around a +$40/bbl premium in recent days, I have seen no mention of the large fact that the Big Oils earn Dated Brent, not the paper price that is killing oil bulls (long the paper) with frustration. So the price you see on your screen – Brent around $100/bbl – far understates what the companies will earn when they …

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CERAWeek 2: Hamm on a Horse

By Paul Sankey Published on March 26, 2026 at 11:33 AM

Day 2 & 3, CERAWeek, a key organizer told me that there are 12,000 attendees, 900 companies, and at peak, 19 simultaneous presentations. That leaves me around 1.5 minutes at each presentation if I run between the four floors and two venues. Today for Strategy Session, 45 minutes live from CERAWeek, 3pm CT, 4pm ET, after I have to run to meeting with Greg Goff. I have invited our favourites Gordon Shearer (LNG), Kathleen Kelley …

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