By Paul Sankey
Published on May 4, 2025 at 5:01 PM
May The 4th Be With You, Boom boom! To end this note I explain why the onset of May changes my behaviour – as a rule of thumb – regarding oysters, cinemas, and Broadway shows, until once again there is an “R” in the month – SeptembeR. May to August, driving season, is my favourite season. We just flipped the winter to summer switch in NYC. Last week went from freezing to boiling, right on …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on April 13, 2025 at 4:14 PM
One of the recent Happy Hour lines that struck me, came from a Republican lobbyist who was a guest in the interim between Trump winning, and Trump being inaugurated. He repeated “tariffs” strongly, then followed up by saying that “During Trump 1, our firm had a track record of 85% success in getting an exemption on tariffs for our clients.” Hmmm. Sure enough, this weekend we have the “Tim Apple Tariff Exemption” whereby suddenly per …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on January 12, 2025 at 5:45 PM
One mega-policy that is emerging for Trump II is an old classic: The Monroe Doctrine. In this note we run through an argument that says, “truly anything can happen with Trump and foreign policy.” Pinball market. The key uncertainty is China, where economic weakness in China suggests Trump holds the power Shipping stocks ripping imply Russia-Ukraine will be a protracted negotiation; we see Biden tightening shadow fleet sanctions as strengthening Trump’s and Saudi’s hands; and …
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