By Paul Sankey
Published on August 9, 2026 at 9:02 PM
Valero CFO Homer Bhullar said on our Thursday call, with the Valero stock close to all-time highs: “Our mid-cycle is set by hydroskimming”. Homework today is running with that unit’s global economics. The data says that US/North American refining is running at max capacity ~95% utilisation Ergo, with no marginal US refining, Valero’s midcycle is set by European hydroskimming. We argue that the stock is currently discounting hydroskimming margins sustained at $4/bbl (if you require …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on August 4, 2026 at 12:09 PM
Reminder: we have Valero management live as this week’s Happy Hour. Thursday, August 6th @ 2:30PM ET – note unusual time. Guests: Randy Hawkins, VP International Crude Oil Supply & Trading, and Brian Donovan, VP IR; not sure on Homer Bhullar, CFO, but would not be shocked if he is on. Submit interest: sankeyresearch.com/conference/sankey-strategy-session-valero-interest-form Five questions for Valero: Q1a: Pre- vs post-Hormuz: what changed in your crude slate and product yields, with Russia escalation on …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on August 1, 2026 at 3:37 PM
Illustrated below, Hormuz flows split crude oil vs products. We note the extent to which the war has interrupted oil product supplies globally, especially to Asia and Europe. Source: Kpler, Sankey Research, Claude The market tends to focus on the crude oil impact, but in reality it is gasoline trading at $150/bbl wholesale, not crude at $90/bbl. We did not quite get the celebrated $250/bbl, but Asian jet fuel hit $240.50/bbl on 4 March — …
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