By Paul Sankey
Published on March 8, 2026 at 7:56 PM
Well, that was quite a week. And there it is, oil through $100/bbl on the Tokyo open. It is blatantly clear that the Trump Administration had zero, nada, nothing, as contingency plan for Iran declaring the Strait of Hormuz shut to transit. Even now, their $20bn insurance knee jerk response has been completely ineffective. We are facing the largest overall oil & gas volume outage of my career, which started in 1990, Gulf War 1. …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on February 22, 2026 at 5:53 PM
Pondering the potential disaster of the incoming blizzard that has started here. Our Monday JFK flight to London at 9am… Cancelled First world problem Some 80% of the world’s population has never taken a plane. As of 4pm snow barely an inch ~ This note is a bullish US Distillate note. Strong demand, flat supply. Bullish complex refiners such as Valero, Marathon Petroleum and PSX, but the rising tide lifts all US refining boats, assuming …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on January 16, 2026 at 3:04 PM
Yesterday evening Tom Kloza on Happy Hour was a great conversation. He was all excited by Dangote CEO announcing yesterday plans to double the size of the refinery, and talked about “creep” an old theme little mentioned today. But US refining throughputs are near record highs with many refinery shutdowns completed: creep. Keeping it old school: structurally one major challenge for refiners has gone, from Tom’s huge historic perspective (started in oil markets in the …
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