Morning Natural Gas: Cut Rigs Reap Rewards

By Paul Sankey Published on February 21, 2024 at 9:15 AM

Good news: Chesapeake is cutting activity in US natgas. In the “long cuts/short active” gas drillers pairs, we like propane-rich Antero long vs Short EQT who continue to keep activity high. EQT is supported by its hedging, which makes no sense to us: these financial instruments can be used to maintain cashflow, with no need to maintain activity. Generally, we do not like dry gas plays in 2024, but would favour Chesapeake with capex discipline, …

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Morning Comstock: Thelma, the Black Knight, & Forrest, bearish natgas

By Paul Sankey Published on February 15, 2024 at 10:03 AM

The market whisper is that natgas is heading to break the buck (<$1/mmbtu Henry Hub). Time to buy natgas? We are not switching stance until Comstock capitulates.  The company reported results and held its conference call yesterday. ~ ExxonMobil: the company risks Maduro vs Guyana as 1:10 risk where one is low. Clients are asking about Chevron’s delayed proxy too. CVX say the S-4 will be issued this quarter and “nothing recently in the news …

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Sunday Super Bowlers, Bowls and (Not) Buds

By Paul Sankey Published on February 11, 2024 at 5:05 PM

Good day, We sent you a juicy note on Devon $DVN yesterday, “STOP. Unleash the FANG Within”. Plenty to read there, and a Valero paean “right now the best refining margins in February history” came out Friday afternoon. BREAKING: 2/11/24 (Wall Street Journal) — Two Permian rivals, Diamondback Energy and Endeavor Energy Resources, are finalizing a merger that would create an oil-and-gas behemoth worth more than $50 billion. Diamondback could announce a deal with the …

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