Oh! Canada Tariffs? We barely knew them…

By Paul Sankey Published on February 1, 2025 at 3:02 PM

Who wins from Canada/Mexico oil tariffs? For sure we think consumers lose from higher pump prices given higher cost Canadian crude particularly in the US MidCon. Whether the oil tariff is +25% or +10% matters, as that will be the likely impact on Mid-Con pump prices. Short term winners, complex Gulf Coast refiners such as ExxonMobil, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum, although the latter is a loser in Mid-Con refining, as is Phillips 66 which also …

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The Permian Big Unit: ExxonMobil’s MO (Magnus Opus)

By Paul Sankey Published on October 12, 2024 at 1:58 PM

With ExxonMobil approaching a December 11th analyst day, which we believe is not only a major milestone in the company’s history, but also global oil & gas history, we did what we did with Guyana. We took it to the mat. In this extensive note, we went back through every ExxonMobil conference call and analyst meeting, starting with the company’s completely wrong forecast for the US hydrocarbon balance in 2006, through the 2010 XTO deal, …

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Morning 1996 Called and We are Not Picking Up

By Paul Sankey Published on August 1, 2024 at 7:41 AM

Comstock (Natgas) Resource: They Don’t Get It, but first, the truly shocker news overnight. Chevron-XOM-Hess arbitration delayed to May 2025. We do NOT subscribe to the market chatter that the third arbitrator in the CVX-Hess-XOM dispute over Guyana is Lee Raymond in a fake moustache. Also we believe that reports that the independent arbitrator is Tony the Exxon Tiger, are false. But this ExxonMobil spoiling tactic is working a charm, from their standpoint of holding …

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