Morning Ethane, Dysprosium, and Roses

By Paul Sankey Published on June 5, 2025 at 9:30 AM

Happy Hour today Mark Rossano, just the man to talk actual data, whether China, US, Europe, oil, natgas, or commodities. Great guest, encyclopedic. He fits perfectly with today’s note. Register here: 4pm today, by Zoom. https://sankeyresearch.com/conference/sankey-strategy-session-mark-rossano-interest-form-2/ Arcane data? Committed readers will be familiar with the whole US ethane-to-China trade which we covered, concluding it had to be exempted, and it was. That was shortly after we pointed out US energy dependence on Canada, notably for …

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Sunday Uncertain Veblen Goods

By Paul Sankey Published on April 27, 2025 at 8:17 PM

Greetings, We can keep it shorter today, as yesterday we sent you a Greg Bordelon thematic special on China energy tariffs, not to mention he beat me this evening and released his Model Portfolio note just now. The China note yesterday I most enjoyed reading & editing, and adding fun asides, from the Delta lounge at LAX on Friday night before I took the red-eye back here to Brooklyn. No wonder I never normally take …

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Love Letter to Ethane (from the Frontline of the US-China Trade War)

By Paul Sankey Published on April 26, 2025 at 4:55 PM

He said, Xi said (nothing). We all suffer lunacy in tracking the often-antagonistic, sometimes-capitulative iterations of this “nonsensical” trade war. Headlines this week have drifted towards hyperbole, portents of the death of US-China energy trade – especially oil and LNG. In this note we tit-tat US-China energy. Key points: US energy trade with China is one worldscale trade where we, the USA, are in major trade surplus, globally the dominant supply player, and effectively control …

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