Sunday Realpolitik, Idealpolitik, und China-Sanktionen

By Paul Sankey Published on December 29, 2024 at 6:13 PM

Greetings, In the main part of this note, we examine two of the many key issues of 2025: German/EU natgas China sanctions There are so many counter-currents, that in this attempt to take some of the complexity and contradiction out of 2025 outlooks, by (mildly) deeper on both… we reveal yet more complexity. To keep it actionable, later today at 6pm ET, our resident master of clarity, Mr Greg Bordelon, Sankey Research executive partner, publishes …

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Sunday Thematic: What Happens if Oil Breaks $50/bbl?

By Paul Sankey Published on September 29, 2024 at 2:23 PM

What happens if oil breaks $50/bbl? From our April note earlier this year introducing our CUSP concept: “Forecasting agencies, trading houses, banks, analysts, and journalists, continue to be anchored in the redundant methodology for analyzing the global oil market, namely deriving the ‘Call On OPEC.’ We posit rather, that the oil market works today on “Call on US Supply.” We call it CUSP. The key balance in global oil market is “Call on US (Unconventional) …

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Morning Always a Bull Market Somewhere

By Paul Sankey Published on September 6, 2024 at 11:00 AM

Numerous conversations with clients this week, which was fun. I miss the days of the trading floor, of the random conversations, of the face-to-face interaction, hey, the water cooler. We had a great live Happy Hour on the rooftop of the Knickerbocker Hotel this week. My friend Rob is in New York luxury hotels, and business has never been better. The head of events at the Knickerbocker said “We get 85% occupancy without trying, and …

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