By Paul Sankey
Published on January 26, 2025 at 4:38 PM
A short catch up note today, struggling to see through the blizzard of wood chippings flying out of Washington DC: smoke, flames, feathers, shards of ice … in fact the blizzards and smoke are veritably across the whole USA, as President Trump seems to be everywhere, and making speeches everywhere, with regular but subject-scattered commentary, at-times with wild implications. And that was Week One. Gone are the days of Joe Biden making “no comment” or …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on January 12, 2025 at 5:45 PM
One mega-policy that is emerging for Trump II is an old classic: The Monroe Doctrine. In this note we run through an argument that says, “truly anything can happen with Trump and foreign policy.” Pinball market. The key uncertainty is China, where economic weakness in China suggests Trump holds the power Shipping stocks ripping imply Russia-Ukraine will be a protracted negotiation; we see Biden tightening shadow fleet sanctions as strengthening Trump’s and Saudi’s hands; and …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on December 29, 2024 at 6:13 PM
Greetings, In the main part of this note, we examine two of the many key issues of 2025: German/EU natgas China sanctions There are so many counter-currents, that in this attempt to take some of the complexity and contradiction out of 2025 outlooks, by (mildly) deeper on both… we reveal yet more complexity. To keep it actionable, later today at 6pm ET, our resident master of clarity, Mr Greg Bordelon, Sankey Research executive partner, publishes …
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