Postcard from Calgary

By Paul Sankey Published on April 24, 2025 at 1:58 PM

Postponing today’s Happy Hour owing to a scheduling clash. (Dan Dreyfus CIO at Bornite) – he will be back soon, on a new Thursday. At the very least, next week Greg Bordelon and I will do a State of Union regarding my current trip to the Calgary and the West Coast, and his model portfolio which is weathering extremely well. Huge up days are not his thing, but overall, Greg is performing very well, where …

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Oh! Canada Tariffs? We barely knew them…

By Paul Sankey Published on February 1, 2025 at 3:02 PM

Who wins from Canada/Mexico oil tariffs? For sure we think consumers lose from higher pump prices given higher cost Canadian crude particularly in the US MidCon. Whether the oil tariff is +25% or +10% matters, as that will be the likely impact on Mid-Con pump prices. Short term winners, complex Gulf Coast refiners such as ExxonMobil, Valero, and Marathon Petroleum, although the latter is a loser in Mid-Con refining, as is Phillips 66 which also …

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Morning Panama Vacations vs Canadian Tariffs

By Paul Sankey Published on January 16, 2025 at 10:18 AM

Continuing on from our successful refining conference (Days 1 & 2) we are pedal-to-the-metal on oil markets, with an update required for the latest balances, which have been very dynamic over the past month. Winter, shadow fleet, China, tonight on Happy Hour bring on the barrel counter! Jan Stuart, Global Oil & Gas Economist: Johannes serves as global energy strategist at Piper Sandler. A self-described oil-geek, Stuart and his team take a micro-fundamentals approach to …

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