By Paul Sankey
Published on November 4, 2026 at 7:35 PM
Oof well, we have been working a lot on refining valuation these past weeks, and the refiners got absolutely smashed today. Shout out to the trading desk (I can give you their name but don’t have permission right now to quote) for calling $350/share as the bounce point in Valero, which was down over -10% (low $347.25, -10.4% intraday) at that point, the trader nailed the call in an email to clients. Old School Peabody …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on March 8, 2026 at 7:56 PM
Well, that was quite a week. And there it is, oil through $100/bbl on the Tokyo open. It is blatantly clear that the Trump Administration had zero, nada, nothing, as contingency plan for Iran declaring the Strait of Hormuz shut to transit. Even now, their $20bn insurance knee jerk response has been completely ineffective. We are facing the largest overall oil & gas volume outage of my career, which started in 1990, Gulf War 1. …
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By Paul Sankey
Published on January 24, 2026 at 1:56 PM
We wrote to you regarding the world’s largest traded power market covering the world’s biggest data center cluster, Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland (PJM) capacity auction in mid-2025. Unsurprisingly, although sidelined by mega-headlines such as Venezuela, Iran, Greenland and Davos, there has been more controversy. And this massive ice storm is likely to further escalate the sense of crisis that is growing regarding PJM. Basically we forecast a PJM slow motion trainwreck, that will require crisis management. We predicted …
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